Rosternomics
TE

Theo Epstein

Born Dec 29, 1973 · New York City, NY · age 52

Ended two of the sport's most famous championship droughts — building the Red Sox club that won in 2004 (their first since 1918) and the Cubs team that won in 2016 (their first since 1908). One of the defining executives of the analytics era.

8 seasons with salary-era data across 2 stints. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Titles2
Pennants2
Playoffs6
Record753–543
Win %0.581
+45.9WAB — wins above budget19th/195 execs
+51.0Talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation)12th/195 execs
2.20Acquisition leverage — playoff pts each bought win added, given the roster it joined (did you buy where wins matter?)13th/195 execs
-139.7WAR surplus (era-neutral, win-equiv)184th/195 execs
-291Roster surplus $M171st/195 execs

How the roster was sourced

Share of gross-positive acquired fWAR by channel (vs. league average).

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+227.1
Trade-44.3
Free agency-76.0
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.2
Sourcing mix: 56% draft · 31% FA · 13% trade · 0% R5

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Red Sox GM 2007–2011 5 +24.9 +4.98 +32.9 -79.8 +126.7 -4.4 -48.7 +0.0 2.72 0.574 311 -184
Red Sox GM 2003–2005 3 +21.0 +7.00 +18.1 -60.0 +100.5 -39.9 -27.2 -0.2 1.66 0.593 311 -107
Career total (1985+ data) 8 +45.9 +51.0 -139.7 +227.1 -44.3 -76.0 -0.2 2.20 0.581 62 2 -291

Players acquired — 126 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year fWAR
David Ortiz DH BOS Free agency 2003 +48.8
Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS Draft 2004 +44.8
Mookie Betts OF BOS Draft 2011 +34.6
Xander Bogaerts SS BOS Intl FA 2009 +34.1
Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS Draft 2005 +22.2
Josh Beckett P BOS Trade 2005 +20.1
Jackie Bradley OF BOS Draft 2011 +16.3
Clay Buchholz P BOS Draft 2005 +14.2
Jonathan Papelbon P BOS Draft 2003 +14.1
J. D. Drew OF BOS Free agency 2007 +12.9
Curt Schilling P BOS Trade 2003 +12.8
Christian Vázquez C BOS Draft 2008 +11.8
Bill Mueller 3B BOS Free agency 2003 +9.3
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C BOS Trade 2010 +8.8
Daisuke Matsuzaka P BOS Draft 2007 +7.8
John Lackey P BOS Free agency 2009 +6.8
Adrian Beltré 3B BOS Free agency 2010 +6.4
Mike Lowell 3B BOS Free agency 2007 +6.2
Daniel Nava OF BOS Draft 2010 +6.0
Matt Barnes P BOS Draft 2011 +4.9
Marco Scutaro 2B/SS BOS Free agency 2009 +4.7
Junichi Tazawa P BOS Draft 2009 +4.0
Víctor Martínez C/DH BOS Trade 2009 +3.7
Félix Doubront P BOS Intl FA 2005 +3.5
Jed Lowrie 2B/SS BOS Draft 2005 +3.5
Rich Hill P BOS Free agency 2010 +3.5
Mike Timlin P BOS Free agency 2003 +3.3
David Wells P BOS Free agency 2004 +3.0
Matt Clement P BOS Free agency 2004 +2.9
Hideki Okajima P BOS Draft 2007 +2.8
Brandon Workman P BOS Draft 2010 +2.8
David Ross C BOS Free agency 2008 +2.5
Chris Martin P BOS Free agency 2011 +2.4
Curt Schilling P BOS Free agency 2007 +2.3
Édgar Rentería SS BOS Free agency 2004 +1.8
Will Middlebrooks 3B BOS Draft 2007 +1.6
Mike Aviles SS BOS Trade 2011 +1.5
Keith Foulke P BOS Free agency 2004 +1.3
Travis Shaw 3B BOS Draft 2011 +1.3
Doug Mirabelli C BOS Free agency 2004 +1.2
Blake Swihart C/OF BOS Draft 2011 +1.2
Wade Miller P BOS Free agency 2004 +1.1
Scott Atchison P BOS Free agency 2007 +0.9
Andrew Miller P BOS Free agency 2010 +0.7
Ryan Sweeney OF BOS Trade 2011 +0.7
Gabe Kapler OF BOS Free agency 2003 +0.6
Darnell McDonald OF BOS Free agency 2009 +0.6
Rocco Baldelli OF BOS Free agency 2009 +0.5
Bartolo Colón P BOS Free agency 2008 +0.5
John Olerud 1B BOS Free agency 2005 +0.4
Jeff Bailey 1B BOS Trade 2007 +0.4
Drake Britton P BOS Draft 2007 +0.4
Henry Owens P BOS Draft 2011 +0.4
Drew Sutton 2B/OF BOS Free agency 2010 +0.4
Chad Bradford P BOS Trade 2005 +0.3
Carl Crawford OF BOS Free agency 2010 +0.3
Ramón Ramírez P BOS Trade 2008 +0.3
Takashi Saito P BOS Free agency 2009 +0.3
Dan Wheeler P BOS Free agency 2010 +0.3
Michael Bowden P BOS Draft 2005 +0.2
Geremi González P BOS Free agency 2005 +0.2
David Pauley P BOS Trade 2004 +0.2
Pokey Reese 2B/SS BOS Free agency 2003 +0.2
Paul Byrd P BOS Free agency 2009 +0.2
Garin Cecchini 3B BOS Draft 2010 +0.2
Alex Wilson P BOS Draft 2009 +0.2
Lenny DiNardo P BOS Rule 5 2003 +0.1
Byung-Hyun Kim P BOS Trade 2003 +0.1
Alejandro Machado 2B/OF BOS Trade 2005 +0.1
Dave McCarty 1B/OF BOS Free agency 2003 +0.1
Robert Person P BOS Free agency 2003 +0.1
Alfredo Aceves P BOS Free agency 2011 +0.1
Matt Albers P BOS Free agency 2010 +0.1
Kevin Cash C BOS Free agency 2007 +0.1
Robert Coello P BOS Trade 2010 +0.1
Jamie Brown P BOS Trade 2003 +0.0
Lou Collier SS BOS Free agency 2003 -0.0
Tommy Hottovy P BOS Draft 2004 -0.0
Roberto Petagine 1B BOS Free agency 2005 +0.0
Shawn Wooten 1B/DH BOS Free agency 2005 -0.0
Joey Gathright OF BOS Free agency 2011 +0.0
Nick Green 2B/SS BOS Free agency 2009 -0.0
Bobby Jenks P BOS Free agency 2010 +0.0
Jonathan Van Every OF BOS Trade 2010 +0.0
Randy Williams P BOS Free agency 2010 +0.0
Pedro Astacio P BOS Free agency 2004 -0.1
Adrian Brown OF BOS Free agency 2003 -0.1
Craig Hansen P BOS Draft 2005 -0.1
Rudy Seánez P BOS Free agency 2003 -0.1
Phil Seibel P BOS Trade 2003 -0.1
David Aardsma P BOS Trade 2008 -0.1
Jonathan Aro P BOS Intl FA 2011 -0.1
Bryce Brentz OF BOS Draft 2010 -0.1
Sean Casey 1B BOS Free agency 2008 -0.1
Enrique González P BOS Free agency 2008 -0.1
Alex Hassan OF BOS Draft 2009 -0.1
Che-Hsuan Lin OF BOS Intl FA 2007 -0.1
Dennys Reyes P BOS Free agency 2011 -0.1
Scott Schoeneweis P BOS Free agency 2010 -0.1
Joe Thurston 2B/3B BOS Free agency 2007 -0.1
Andy Dominique C/1B BOS Trade 2004 -0.2
Hunter Jones P BOS Intl FA 2005 -0.2
Matt Mantei P BOS Free agency 2004 -0.2
Cla Meredith P BOS Draft 2004 -0.2
David Murphy OF BOS Draft 2003 -0.2
Dan Butler C BOS Intl FA 2009 -0.2
Mike Cameron OF BOS Free agency 2009 -0.2
Chris Carter OF BOS Trade 2007 -0.2
William Cuevas P BOS Intl FA 2008 -0.2
Jose Iglesias SS BOS Intl FA 2009 -0.2
Gustavo Molina C BOS Free agency 2010 -0.2
Ryan Shealy 1B BOS Free agency 2010 -0.2
Nate Spears 2B/OF BOS Trade 2011 -0.2
Billy Traber P BOS Free agency 2008 -0.2
Gil Velazquez 3B BOS Trade 2008 -0.2
Andy Abad 1B BOS Free agency 2003 -0.3
Jason Shiell P BOS Free agency 2003 -0.3
Adam Stern OF BOS Rule 5 2004 -0.3
Fernando Cabrera P BOS Free agency 2009 -0.3
Bobby Jones P BOS Free agency 2003 -0.4
Kyle Weiland P BOS Draft 2008 -0.4
Abe Alvarez P BOS Draft 2003 -0.5
Noé Ramirez P BOS Draft 2011 -0.6
Yamaico Navarro 3B/SS BOS Intl FA 2005 -0.8
Anthony Ranaudo P BOS Draft 2010 -0.8
Ryan Lavarnway C BOS Draft 2008 -1.2

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.