KCR⇄CHC

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$2.4M net +0.5

received +$16.0M+$16.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.5 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike MontgomeryP·29y·L/L

+$16.4M+$16.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.88/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2019 odds 54% → 51% (-3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Martín MaldonadoC·32y·R/R

+$9.0M+$9.0M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.72/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.