RRosternomics
𝕏
Justin Hollander

Justin Hollander

★ active

General manager for the Mariners (2023–present).

4 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record311–273
Win %0.533
+3.6GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±6.520th/195 execs
7.8Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)28th/195 execs
-4.0Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)26th/195 execs
34%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)96th/195 execs
$65MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track7th/195 execs
$23MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)9th/195 execs
$7MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade59th/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees131st/195 execs
+26.3TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total31st/195 execs
+21.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)33rd/195 execs
4.49Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)9th/195 execs
+69Roster surplus $M19th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Mariners GM 2023–present 3 +21.9 +7.29 +26.3 +18.5 +21.6 +4.3 -7.7 +0.0 4.49 0.533 1–– +69
Career total (1985+ data) 4 +21.9 +26.3 +18.5 +21.6 +4.3 -7.7 +0.0 4.49 0.533 1– – +69

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+21.6
Trade+4.3
Free agency-7.7
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 67% draft · 2% FA · 32% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Justin Hollander's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 72 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Bryan Woo P SEA Draft 2023 4 +9.5 +2.4 –
Randy Arozarena OF SEA Trade 2024 3 +6.5 +2.2 2.5
Bryce Miller P SEA Draft 2023 4 +6.0 +1.5 –
Dominic Canzone DH/OF SEA Trade 2023 3 +3.0 +1.0 0.1
Luke Raley OF SEA Trade 2024 3 +2.9 +1.0 5.7
Josh Rojas 2B/3B SEA Trade 2023 2 +2.9 +1.4 6.7
Jorge Polanco 2B/SS SEA Free agency 2025 2 +2.6 +1.3 0.7
Gabe Speier P SEA Trade 2023 3 +2.4 +0.8 3.5
José Caballero SS SEA Draft 2023 1 +1.9 +1.9 –
Teoscar Hernández OF SEA Trade 2023 1 +1.9 +1.9 12.2
Eduard Bazardo P SEA Trade 2023 4 +1.5 +0.4 0.2
Emerson Hancock P SEA Draft 2023 2 +1.4 +0.7 –
Cole Young 2B SEA Draft 2025 1 +1.4 +1.4 –
Justin Topa P SEA Trade 2023 1 +1.0 +1.0 6.6
Cade Marlowe OF SEA Draft 2023 2 +0.9 +0.5 –
Justin Turner 3B SEA Trade 2024 1 +0.7 +0.7 1.8
Collin Snider P SEA Trade 2024 2 +0.7 +0.3 1.2
Leo Rivas 2B/SS SEA Draft 2024 2 +0.6 +0.3 –
Trevor Gott P SEA Trade 2023 1 +0.6 +0.6 3.7
Mike Ford 1B/DH SEA Trade 2023 1 +0.6 +0.6 3.9
Brendan Donovan 2B/OF SEA Trade 2026 1 +0.6 +0.6 4.3
Ryan Bliss 2B SEA Trade 2023 2 +0.4 +0.2 –
Jose Ferrer P SEA Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 2.6
Ben Williamson 2B/3B SEA Draft 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 –
Isaiah Campbell P SEA Draft 2023 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Alex Hoppe P SEA Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Josh Naylor 1B SEA Free agency 2025 2 +0.3 +0.1 12.4
Jhonny Pereda C SEA Trade 2026 1 +0.3 +0.3 2.2
Jorge Polanco 2B/SS SEA Trade 2024 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.7
Trent Thornton P SEA Trade 2023 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.5
Tayler Saucedo P SEA Trade 2023 2 +0.3 +0.1 1.2
Luis Urías 2B/3B SEA Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.5
Luke Jackson P SEA Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.2
Easton McGee P SEA Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.1
Cooper Criswell P SEA Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 1.0
Will Wilson 2B/3B SEA Free agency 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.8
Caleb Ferguson P SEA Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 1.0
Juan Burgos P SEA Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.7
Luis Castillo P SEA Free agency 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Jhonathan Díaz P SEA Free agency 2024 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.1
Harry Ford C SEA Draft 2025 – -0.0 – –
Michael Rucker P SEA Free agency 2026 – -0.0 – –
Ryder Ryan P SEA Draft 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Gregory Santos P SEA Trade 2024 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.5
Kirby Snead P SEA Free agency 2024 – -0.0 – –
Austin Voth P SEA Free agency 2024 – -0.0 – –
Seby Zavala C SEA Trade 2023 – -0.0 – –
Donovan Solano 2B SEA Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Ryne Stanek P SEA Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Jonathan Hernández P SEA Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
José Rodríguez P SEA Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Tyson Miller P SEA Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B SEA Trade 2025 1 -0.0 -0.0 1.7
Brett de Geus P SEA Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Ty Adcock P SEA Draft 2023 – -0.1 – –
Blas Castano P SEA Draft 2025 – -0.1 – –
Logan Evans P SEA Draft 2025 – -0.1 – –
Mitch Garver C/DH SEA Free agency 2023 1 -0.1 -0.1 2.0
Tommy La Stella 2B/3B SEA Free agency 2023 – -0.1 – –
Casey Legumina P SEA Trade 2025 1 -0.1 -0.1 1.0
Rhylan Thomas OF SEA Trade 2024 – -0.1 – –
Samad Taylor 2B/OF SEA Trade 2024 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Jesse Hahn P SEA Free agency 2024 – -0.2 – –
Connor Joe 1B/OF SEA Free agency 2026 – -0.2 – –
Tyler Locklear 1B SEA Draft 2024 – -0.2 – –
Troy Taylor P SEA Draft 2024 – -0.2 – –
Juan Then P SEA Draft 2023 – -0.2 – –
Jason Vosler 1B/3B SEA Free agency 2023 – -0.2 – –
Casey Lawrence P SEA Trade 2025 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Josh Simpson P SEA Trade 2026 – -0.3 – –
Víctor Robles OF SEA Free agency 2024 1 -0.4 -0.4 8.0
Rob Refsnyder OF SEA Free agency 2025 – -1.1 – –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

drag to zoom · double-click to reset
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.