CHW⇄BOS

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2008 odds 40% → 40% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel SocolovichP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Willy Mota

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $20M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2008 odds 90% → 90% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David AardsmaP·26y·R/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.38/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.