RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.84× league · TAB -16.4
-16.4TAB — talent above budget30th/30
-18.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-10.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
36%dead money %15th/30
0.377win %29th/30
15.6roster fWAR30th/30
-40surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$83Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFTony Campana 55GDavid DeJesus 50GBrett Jackson 39G
LFAlfonso Soriano 145GJoe Mather 25GTony Campana 11G
RFDavid DeJesus 100GBryan LaHair 34GDave Sappelt 20G
SSStarlin Castro 162GDarwin Barney 3G
2BDarwin Barney 155GAdrian Cardenas 12GLuis Valbuena 5G
3BLuis Valbuena 82GIan Stewart 52GJosh Vitters 29G
1BAnthony Rizzo 85GBryan LaHair 58GJeff Baker 20G
STARTERSJeff Samardzija 2.6WARMatt Garza 0.7WARTravis Wood 0.7WARJustin Germano 0.3WARChris Rusin 0.2WAR
CSteve Clevenger 51GWelington Castillo 49GAnthony Recker 17G
DHAlfonso Soriano 6G
BULLPEN★ Carlos Marmol 20svShawn Camp 18hJames Russell 13hManny Corpas 6hRafael Dolis 3hMichael Bowden 2hAlex Hinshaw 1hJairo Asencio 0h
CSteve Clevenger 51 · Welington Castillo 49 · Anthony Recker 17
1BAnthony Rizzo 85 · Bryan LaHair 58 · Jeff Baker 20
2BDarwin Barney 155 · Adrian Cardenas 12 · Luis Valbuena 5
3BLuis Valbuena 82 · Ian Stewart 52 · Josh Vitters 29
SSStarlin Castro 162 · Darwin Barney 3
LFAlfonso Soriano 145 · Joe Mather 25 · Tony Campana 11
CFTony Campana 55 · David DeJesus 50 · Brett Jackson 39
RFDavid DeJesus 100 · Bryan LaHair 34 · Dave Sappelt 20
DHAlfonso Soriano 6
SPJeff Samardzija 2.6 · Matt Garza 0.7 · Travis Wood 0.7 · Justin Germano 0.3 · Chris Rusin 0.2
BP★ Carlos Marmol 20 · Shawn Camp 18 · James Russell 13 · Manny Corpas 6 · Rafael Dolis 3 · Michael Bowden 2 · Alex Hinshaw 1 · Jairo Asencio 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Alfonso Soriano 36 FA-elig 1513.2 18.0 -9.8
Starlin Castro 22 pre-arb 1623.1 0.6 +7.6
Jeff Samardzija 27 arb 312.6 2.6 +4.0
Darwin Barney 26 pre-arb 1561.9 0.5 +4.3
David DeJesus 32 FA-elig 1481.8 4.2 +0.5
Ryan Dempster↔ TEX 35 FA-elig 161.7 8.0 -3.7
Anthony Rizzo 22 pre-arb 871.6 0.5 +3.6
Luis Valbuena 26 arb 901.1 0.5 +2.3
Geovany Soto↔ TEX 29 FA-elig 521.1 2.3 +0.5
Paul Maholm↔ ATL 30 FA-elig 211.0 3.1 -0.5
Reed Johnson↔ ATL 35 FA-elig 760.8 0.7 +1.3
Dave Sappelt 25 pre-arb 260.7 0.5 +1.4
Matt Garza 28 FA-elig 180.7 9.5 -7.7
Welington Castillo 25 pre-arb 520.7 0.5 +1.3
Tony Campana 26 pre-arb 890.7 0.5 +1.3
Travis Wood 25 pre-arb 280.7 0.5 +1.2
James Russell 26 pre-arb 770.7 0.5 +1.2
Bryan LaHair 29 arb 1300.6 0.5 +1.0
Shawn Camp 36 FA-elig 800.4 0.6 +0.5
Justin Germano↔ BOS 29 – 130.3 – –
Brett Jackson 23 pre-arb 440.2 0.2 +0.4
Chris Rusin 25 – 70.2 0.1 +0.3
Carlos Marmol 29 FA-elig 610.1 7.0 -6.7
Anthony Recker↔ OAK 28 pre-arb 90.1 0.2 +0.0
Jaye Chapman 25 – 140.1 0.5 -0.3
Alberto Cabrera 23 pre-arb 250.0 0.5 -0.4
Jeff Baker↔ ATL 31 FA-elig 54-0.0 0.9 -0.9
Scott Maine↔ CLE 27 – 21-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Michael Bowden↔ BOS 25 arb 30-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Miguel Socolovich↔ BAL 25 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Rodrigo Lopez 36 – 4-0.0 – –
Jason Berken↔ BAL 28 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Chris Volstad 25 arb 21-0.1 2.7 -2.9
Jairo Asencio↔ CLE 29 arb 12-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Ian Stewart 27 arb 55-0.2 2.2 -2.7
Randy Wells 29 arb 12-0.2 2.7 -3.2
Lendy Castillo 23 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Blake Parker 27 – 7-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Casey Coleman 24 pre-arb 17-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Kerry Wood 35 FA-elig 10-0.3 3.0 -3.8
Adrian Cardenas 24 – 45-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Blake DeWitt 26 arb 18-0.4 1.1 -2.0
Jeff Beliveau 25 – 22-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Brooks Raley 24 – 5-0.4 0.5 -1.6
Koyie Hill 33 – 11-0.4 – –
Blake Lalli 29 – 6-0.5 – –
Steve Clevenger 26 pre-arb 69-0.5 0.5 -1.9
Manny Corpas 29 – 48-0.6 0.2 -1.7
Alex Hinshaw↔ SDP 29 – 2-0.6 – –
Rafael Dolis 24 pre-arb 34-0.7 0.5 -2.4
Marlon Byrd↔ BOS 34 FA-elig 13-0.9 1.8 -4.1
Joe Mather 29 arb 103-1.2 0.5 -3.5
Josh Vitters 22 pre-arb 36-1.4 0.5 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
David DeJesus1.8
Anthony Rizzo1.6
Luis Valbuena1.1
Paul Maholm1.0
Dave Sappelt0.7
Travis Wood0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Aramis Ramirez3.3
Sean Marshall2.6
Carlos Pena2.5
Doug Davis0.5
Andrew Cashner0.0
John Gaub0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$83.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Alfonso Soriano3611.079$18.0M$11.1MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster3513.063$8.0MFREE AGENT
David DeJesus327.146$4.2M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Paul Maholm306.037$3.1MFREE AGENT
Kerry Wood3513.169$3.0MFREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd348.045$1.8MFREE AGENT
Reed Johnson358.145$734kFREE AGENT
Shawn Camp366.170$550k$1.4MFREE AGENT
Rodrigo Lopez3612.000—FREE AGENT
Justin Germano298.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Matt Garza284.149$9.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Marmol295.084$7.0MFREE AGENT
Randy Wells293.016$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Volstad253.076$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geovany Soto294.096$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Stewart274.171$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake DeWitt263.048$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Baker315.049$895kFREE AGENT
Joe Mather294.000$490kARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Corpas294.076$250kARB 3FREE AGENT
Koyie Hill335.006—FREE AGENT
Alex Hinshaw294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Jeff Samardzija272.028$2.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Starlin Castro221.150$567kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Russell262.000$512kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Wood251.039$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwin Barney261.053$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Valbuena262.032$495kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Campana260.135$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan LaHair290.100$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Clevenger262.123$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Dolis240.010$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Vitters220.060$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lendy Castillo230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo220.066$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Coleman240.162$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Welington Castillo250.064$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Raley240.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaye Chapman25–$480k
Adrian Cardenas24–$480k
Jeff Beliveau250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Sappelt250.086$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Cabrera230.093$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden252.030$454kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Berken282.110$384kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Parker270.000$367kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Maine270.165$336kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Socolovich251.085$240kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Recker280.037$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jairo Asencio290.049$192kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Jackson230.060$157kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rusin250.000$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Lalli290.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.