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Cubs CHC

2016103–58 (0.640)★ 2016 World Series Champions
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President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2016, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$166M
Surplus $M
+7
Win %
0.640
TAB
+16.5
WAB
+18.1
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
53.7
Dead money %
15%
Depth Players
11.0
Dead WAR
-2.6

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2016 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

LMiguel Montero71
RDavid Ross58
RWillson Contreras57
RTim Federowicz12

1B

LAnthony Rizzo154
RKris Bryant9
RJavier Báez6
LChris Coghlan⇄4
RWillson Contreras3
BBen Zobrist1

2B

BBen Zobrist119
RJavier Báez59
LMunenori Kawasaki10
LTommy La Stella9
LAnthony Rizzo1

3B

RKris Bryant107
RJavier Báez62
LTommy La Stella33
LChris Coghlan⇄12
BJeimer Candelario3
LMunenori Kawasaki1

SS

RAddison Russell148
RJavier Báez25
BBen Zobrist1
RKris Bryant1

LF

RKris Bryant60
RJorge Soler53
RMatt Szczur50
BBen Zobrist27
RWillson Contreras24
LChris Coghlan⇄20
RAlbert Almora Jr.8
RTravis Wood3
RJavier Báez2
LRyan Kalish2
LKyle Schwarber2
RPedro Strop1
RSpencer Patton1

CF

BDexter Fowler121
RAlbert Almora Jr.33
LJason Heyward24
RMatt Szczur15
RKris Bryant1

RF

LJason Heyward131
BBen Zobrist24
RMatt Szczur15
RKris Bryant14
LChris Coghlan⇄12
RJorge Soler7
RAlbert Almora Jr.2
LRyan Kalish1

DH

RJorge Soler7
BDexter Fowler1
RKris Bryant1
LMiguel Montero1

Starters

LJon Lester4.2 WAR
RJake Arrieta4.2 WAR
RKyle Hendricks4.0 WAR
RJohn Lackey2.6 WAR
RJason Hammel1.8 WAR
LRob Zastryzny0.4 WAR
RJake Buchanan0.1 WAR
LMike Montgomery⇄-0.1 WAR
RTrevor Cahill-0.1 WAR
LBrian Matusz⇄-0.3 WAR
RAdam Warren⇄-0.7 WAR

Bullpen

★ LAroldis Chapman⇄36 sv
RPedro Strop21 h
LTravis Wood12 h
RJustin Grimm10 h
RHector Rondon7 h
RCarl Edwards Jr.6 h
RTrevor Cahill4 h
RAdam Warren⇄0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; ⇄ marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Ben Zobrist3.6
John Lackey2.6
Willson Contreras2.5
Aroldis Chapman1.3
Jason Heyward0.6
Albert Almora Jr.0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Starlin Castro0.6
Chris Denorfia0.4
Jason Motte0.4
Dan Haren0.2
Tsuyoshi Wada0.2
Donn Roach0.1

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Cubs. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2016; everyone else is shown as a 2016 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Kris Bryant 2016 +7.5 +86.0 0.7 +85.3 $0.1M 1.43× Free Agent · 2022–2028 · $26.0M AAV
Kyle Hendricks 2016 +4.0 +70.1 0.5 +69.5 $0.1M 2.19× –
Jake Arrieta 2016 +4.2 +73.1 10.7 +62.4 $2.6M 2.19× –
Dexter Fowler 2016 +4.3 +61.7 8.0 +53.7 $1.9M 1.79× –
Jon Lester 2016 +4.2 +74.4 25.0 +49.4 $5.9M 2.19× –
Anthony Rizzo 2016 +4.8 +46.4 5.0 +41.4 $1.0M 1.20× –
Addison Russell 2016 +3.6 +37.7 0.5 +37.1 $0.1M 1.32× –
John Lackey 2016 +2.6 +40.9 16.0 +24.9 $6.1M 1.96× –
Ben Zobrist 2016 +3.6 +34.5 10.5 +24.0 $2.9M 1.20× –
Javier Báez 2016 +2.6 +22.8 0.5 +22.3 $0.2M 1.12× Free Agent · 2022–2027 · $23.3M AAV
Willson Contreras 2016 +2.5 +15.2 0.3 +14.9 $0.1M 0.76× Free Agent · 2023–2027 · $17.5M AAV
Jason Hammel 2016 +1.8 +20.8 9.0 +11.8 $5.1M 1.49× –
Aroldis Chapman↔ 2016 +1.3 +14.3 5.4 +9.0 $4.0M 1.34× Extension · 2026–2027 · $13.3M AAV
David Ross 2016 +1.5 +6.2 2.5 +3.7 $1.7M 0.52× –
Albert Almora Jr. 2016 +0.5 +3.5 0.2 +3.3 $0.4M 0.83× –
Rob Zastryzny 2016 +0.4 +2.3 0.1 +2.1 $0.3M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.9M AAV
Chris Coghlan↔ 2016 +0.6 +4.3 2.3 +2.0 $3.6M 0.83× –
Héctor Rondón 2016 +0.6 +6.1 4.2 +1.9 $7.3M 1.34× –
Tommy La Stella 2016 +0.5 +2.3 0.5 +1.7 $1.1M 0.58× –
Justin Grimm 2016 +0.5 +2.7 1.3 +1.4 $2.6M 0.67× –
Matt Szczur 2016 +0.3 +1.9 0.5 +1.4 $1.8M 0.83× –
Munenori Kawasaki 2016 +0.3 +1.5 0.1 +1.4 $0.3M 0.56× –
Félix Peña 2016 +0.2 +1.1 0.1 +1.0 $0.6M 0.67× –
Jake Buchanan 2016 +0.1 +0.5 0.1 +0.5 $1.3M 1.02× –
Joe Nathan↔ 2016 +0.0 +0.2 0.3 -0.1 $7.1M 0.67× –
Neil Ramírez↔ 2016 -0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 – 0.67× –
Pedro Strop 2016 +0.7 +3.8 4.4 -0.6 $6.1M 0.67× –
Mike Montgomery↔ 2016 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.7 – 0.67× –
Gerardo Concepción 2016 +0.1 +0.3 1.2 -0.9 $20.6M 0.67× –
Jorge Soler 2016 +0.4 +2.7 3.7 -0.9 $9.0M 0.83× Free Agent · 2024–2026 · $14.0M AAV
Jeimer Candelario 2016 -0.2 -1.1 0.0 -1.1 – 0.58× –
Kyle Schwarber 2016 -0.1 -0.7 0.5 -1.2 – 0.83× Free Agent · 2026–2030 · $30.0M AAV
Tim Federowicz 2016 -0.2 -1.0 0.2 -1.2 – 0.52× –
Spencer Patton 2016 -0.2 -1.2 0.2 -1.4 – 0.67× –
Clayton Richard↔ 2016 -0.0 -0.1 1.4 -1.5 – 0.67× –
Joel Peralta↔ 2016 -0.3 -1.4 0.2 -1.6 – 0.67× –
Brian Matusz↔ 2016 -0.3 -2.4 0.5 -2.9 – 1.02× –
Joe Smith↔ 2016 -0.2 -2.6 1.6 -4.2 – 1.34× –
Trevor Cahill 2016 -0.1 -0.4 4.2 -4.6 – 0.67× –
Adam Warren↔ 2016 -0.7 -3.8 0.8 -4.7 – 0.67× –
Travis Wood 2016 -0.1 -0.5 6.2 -6.7 – 0.67× –
Miguel Montero 2016 +1.4 +6.0 14.0 -8.0 $9.7M 0.52× –
Jason Heyward 2016 +0.6 +4.1 21.7 -17.6 $35.4M 0.83× –
Ryan Kalish 2016 +0.0 +0.0 0.0 -0.0 $7.1M 0.83× –
Carl Edwards Jr. 2016 +0.6 +2.9 – – – 0.67× –
Total—+53.8+634.4165.5+465.8—

Trades

Every graded 2016 deal involving the Cubs — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 7 total.

2016 · CHC / OAK
CHC · Theo Epstein +$3.2M
Chris Coghlan
OAK · Billy Beane −$3.2M
Arismendy Alcántara
CHC came out ahead by $3.2M
2016 · CHC / SEA
CHC · Theo Epstein +$8.8M
Mike Montgomery, Jordan Pries
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$8.8M
Dan Vogelbach, Paul Blackburn
CHC came out ahead by $8.8M
2016 · CHC / BAL
CHC · Theo Epstein +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
BAL · Dan Duquette +$0.0M
Edgar Olmos
Even trade
2016 · ANA / CHC
ANA · Billy Eppler +$8.0M
Jesus Castillo
CHC · Theo Epstein −$8.0M
Joe Smith
ANA came out ahead by $8.0M
2016 · CHC / OAK
CHC · Theo Epstein +$8.0M
Aaron Brooks
OAK · Billy Beane −$8.0M
Chris Coghlan
CHC came out ahead by $8.0M
2016 · KCR / CHC
KCR · Dayton Moore +$10.4M
Jorge Soler
CHC · Theo Epstein −$10.4M
Wade Davis
KCR came out ahead by $10.4M
2016 · NYY / CHC
NYY · Brian Cashman +$74.4M
Adam Warren, Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford
CHC · Theo Epstein −$74.4M
Aroldis Chapman
NYY came out ahead by $74.4M

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$165.7M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Jon Lester329.075$25.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Heyward266.000$21.7MFREE AGENT
John Lackey3713.095$16.0MFREE AGENT
Miguel Montero329.031$14.0MFREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist358.134$10.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Hammel338.153$9.0MFREE AGENT
Dexter Fowler306.168$8.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill286.098$4.2MFREE AGENT
David Ross3913.001$2.5MFREE AGENT
Joe Smith328.091$1.6MFREE AGENT
Joe Nathan4114.120$300kFREE AGENT
Joel Peralta409.132$202kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Jake Arrieta304.145$10.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Wood295.004$6.2MFREE AGENT
Aroldis Chapman285.034$5.4MFREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo263.168$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop314.156$4.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Rondón283.000$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Coghlan315.148$2.3MFREE AGENT
Clayton Richard325.163$1.4MFREE AGENT
Adam Warren283.036$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Matusz295.156$488kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Jorge Soler241.032$3.7MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Grimm272.170$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gerardo Concepción24–$1.2M
Kris Bryant240.171$652kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks261.080$541kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy La Stella272.000$532kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Russell220.167$527kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber230.086$522kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Báez230.089$521kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Szczur260.134$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willson Contreras240.000$299kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Ramírez271.158$233kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Federowicz281.107$214kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Patton280.106$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albert Almora Jr.220.000$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Montgomery260.089$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Zastryzny240.000$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Peña260.000$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Munenori Kawasaki352.138$100kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Buchanan260.105$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Kalish282.117$31kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeimer Candelario220.000$17kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2016 acquisition stacked onto Cubs's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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