RRosternomics
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Mets NYM

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President of baseball ops: David Stearns

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.87× league · TAB -16.2
-16.2TAB — talent above budget
-22.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-5.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
35%dead money %13th/30
0.418win %27th/30
25.8roster fWAR23rd/30
-123surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$296Mpayroll $M2nd/30luxury tax $307M

Roster

CFA.J. Ewing 28GLuis Robert Jr. 24GTyrone Taylor 13G
LFJuan Soto 28GCarson Benge 15GMJ Melendez 14G
RFCarson Benge 45GBrett Baty 17GTyrone Taylor 13G
SSBo Bichette 36GFrancisco Lindor 24GRonny Mauricio 8G
2BMarcus Semien 68GBrett Baty 1G
3BBo Bichette 36GBrett Baty 35GAndy Ibáñez 3G
1BMark Vientos 50GJared Young 14GBrett Baty 12G
STARTERSNolan McLean 2.2WARFreddy Peralta 1.2WARClay Holmes 1.2WARChristian Scott 1.1WARDavid Peterson 0.8WAR
CLuis Torrens 40GFrancisco Alvarez 33GHayden Senger 7G
DHJuan Soto 22GMJ Melendez 19GJorge Polanco 12G
BULLPEN★ Devin Williams 9svBrooks Raley 10hLuke Weaver 8hCionel Pérez 5hTobias Myers 3hAustin Warren 0hSean Manaea 0hA.J. Minter 0h
CLuis Torrens 40 · Francisco Alvarez 33 · Hayden Senger 7
1BMark Vientos 50 · Jared Young 14 · Brett Baty 12
2BMarcus Semien 68 · Brett Baty 1
3BBo Bichette 36 · Brett Baty 35 · Andy Ibáñez 3
SSBo Bichette 36 · Francisco Lindor 24 · Ronny Mauricio 8
LFJuan Soto 28 · Carson Benge 15 · MJ Melendez 14
CFA.J. Ewing 28 · Luis Robert Jr. 24 · Tyrone Taylor 13
RFCarson Benge 45 · Brett Baty 17 · Tyrone Taylor 13
DHJuan Soto 22 · MJ Melendez 19 · Jorge Polanco 12
SPNolan McLean 2.2 · Freddy Peralta 1.2 · Clay Holmes 1.2 · Christian Scott 1.1 · David Peterson 0.8
BP★ Devin Williams 9 · Brooks Raley 10 · Luke Weaver 8 · Cionel Pérez 5 · Tobias Myers 3 · Austin Warren 0 · Sean Manaea 0 · A.J. Minter 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2026 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Juan Soto 27 FA-elig 795.0 61.9 -28.7
Nolan McLean 24 pre-arb 193.7 0.8 +23.6
Carson Benge 23 – 952.8 0.8 +18.0
Clay Holmes 33 FA-elig 92.0 13.0 +0.4
A.J. Ewing 21 – 582.0 0.6 +12.7
Freddy Peralta 30 FA-elig 202.0 8.0 +5.0
Francisco Alvarez 24 pre-arb 651.9 2.4 +10.2
Luke Weaver 32 FA-elig 381.8 9.5 +2.2
Christian Scott 27 pre-arb 131.8 0.6 +11.0
Luis Torrens 30 arb 601.6 2.3 +8.1
Bo Bichette 28 FA-elig 971.3 15.3 -6.6
David Peterson↔ CHC 30 arb 161.2 6.8 +1.4
Huascar Brazobán 36 pre-arb 401.2 1.1 +6.8
Brooks Raley 38 FA-elig 401.1 4.8 +2.5
Sean Manaea 34 FA-elig 201.0 19.7 -12.8
Jared Young 30 pre-arb 521.0 1.1 +5.4
Devin Williams 31 FA-elig 360.9 12.0 -5.9
Francisco Lindor 32 FA-elig 410.9 32.5 -26.6
Zach Thornton 24 – 30.7 0.0 +4.7
A.J. Minter 32 FA-elig 190.5 11.0 -8.0
Brett Baty 26 pre-arb 940.2 0.8 +0.4
Luis Robert Jr. 28 – 240.2 20.0 -18.9
Luis García↔ MIN 39 – 60.1 0.7 +0.2
MJ Melendez 27 arb 560.1 1.3 -0.4
Daniel Duarte 29 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.7
Carl Edwards Jr. 34 – 20.1 – –
Guillo Zuñiga 27 – 10.0 – –
Joey Gerber 29 pre-arb 70.0 0.1 +0.0
Xzavion Curry 27 – 20.0 – –
Cionel Pérez↔ WSN 30 – 15-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Richard Lovelady↔ WSN 30 – 6-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Jonah Tong 23 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.5 -1.3
Austin Slater↔ MIA 33 FA-elig 9-0.1 0.2 -1.0
Craig Kimbrel↔ TBR 38 – 14-0.1 0.3 -1.1
Jonathan Pintaro 28 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.0 -1.0
Vidal Bruján 28 arb 9-0.2 0.8 -1.8
Tobias Myers 27 pre-arb 26-0.2 0.8 -1.9
Austin Warren 30 pre-arb 26-0.2 0.7 -2.0
Eric Wagaman 28 pre-arb 20-0.2 0.5 -1.8
Hayden Senger 29 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.6 -2.1
Zack Short↔ DET 31 – 6-0.3 0.1 -2.2
Nick Morabito 23 – 5-0.4 0.0 -2.4
Matt Seelinger 31 – 1-0.4 – –
Andy Ibáñez↔ OAK 33 arb 3-0.5 0.2 -3.2
Tyrone Taylor 32 arb 56-0.5 3.8 -6.8
Tommy Pham 38 – 9-0.5 0.2 -3.2
Marcus Semien 35 FA-elig 80-0.6 26.0 -29.7
Ronny Mauricio 25 pre-arb 17-1.0 0.7 -7.3
Jorge Polanco 32 FA-elig 20-1.0 17.0 -23.7
Kodai Senga 33 arb 11-1.1 15.0 -22.3
Mark Vientos 26 pre-arb 73-1.8 0.8 -12.6

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
Carson Benge1.7
Freddy Peralta1.2
Luke Weaver1.1
Christian Scott1.1
Bo Bichette0.8
Devin Williams0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Pete Alonso3.6
Brandon Nimmo3.0
Jeff McNeil2.1
Edwin Díaz2.0
Griffin Canning0.9
Starling Marte0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$295.7M
luxury tax $307M
2027 guaranteed
$269.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$272M$247M$166M$85M$85M$85M
Proj. arbitration$20M$15M
Proj. pre-arbitration$15M$6M$6M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$325M$271M$205M$103M$103M$103M
Tax space−$-81M−$-24M+$45M+$150M+$153M+$156M
Est. tax bill$64M$12M————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-3 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Juan Soto277.134$61.9M$57.5M$61.9M$61.9M$46.0MOPT-OUT$46.0M$46.0M
Francisco Lindor3210.113$32.5M$32.5M$32.5M$32.5M$32.5M$32.5MFREE AGENT
Marcus Semien3511.118$26.0M$26.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
Luis Robert Jr.286.000$20.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Sean Manaea349.157$19.7M$19.2MFREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco329.024$17.0M$23.0MFREE AGENT
Bo Bichette286.063$15.3M$55.3MOPT-OUT$55.3MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Kodai Senga333.000$15.0M$15.0M$15.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Clay Holmes337.031$13.0M$12.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Devin Williams316.056$12.0M$12.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
A.J. Minter327.154$11.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Luke Weaver328.112$9.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Freddy Peralta307.090$8.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Brooks Raley386.026$4.8MCLUBFREE AGENT
Luis Torrens305.105$2.3M$4.8M$6.8MFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel3814.031$259kFREE AGENT
Austin Slater337.147$191kFREE AGENT
Tommy Pham3810.092$180kFREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.3411.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
David Peterson305.089$6.8MFREE AGENT
Tyrone Taylor325.093$3.8MFREE AGENT
MJ Melendez273.015$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Bruján283.014$775kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis García394.142$700kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cionel Pérez304.151$242kARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Ibáñez333.133$206kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Lovelady303.052$159kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Francisco Alvarez242.164$2.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Young300.133$1.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Huascar Brazobán362.170$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Vientos262.102$814kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Baty262.088$812kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tobias Myers271.109$806kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan McLean240.044$792kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Benge23–$780k
Ronny Mauricio252.028$719kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Warren302.148$702kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Scott271.116$638kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hayden Senger290.102$588kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonah Tong230.031$534kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Wagaman281.020$526kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gerber290.171$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Short312.070$124kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Pintaro280.001$13kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Duarte292.087$8kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillo Zuñiga272.045—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xzavion Curry272.089—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mets 2026; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.