PIT⇄BOS

PITPIT Dave Littlefield net +$4.8M net +0.2

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.2 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2003 odds 6% → 7% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon LyonP·23y·R/R

+$6.8M+$6.8M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#433 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Anastacio MartínezP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$4.8M net -0.2

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.3 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2003 odds 95% → 95% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott SauerbeckP·31y·R/L

+$3.7M+$3.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.64/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mike GonzalezP·25y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#486 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.