CHC⇄TOR

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$12.0M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2017 odds 61% → 64% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Mark Shapiro net −$12.0M net -0.5

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $11M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 2.2 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2017 odds 2% → 2% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel MonteroC·33y·L/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 2.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

2.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.