BOS⇄TEX

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$44.0M net +9.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $17M expected surplus · +$40.8M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 8.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2010 odds 43% → 44% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jarrod SaltalamacchiaC·25y·B/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$40.8M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 8.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$44.0M net -9.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $38M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2010 odds 50% → 49% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Michael ThomasC·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#378 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Chris McGuiness1B·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#408 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Román MéndezP·19y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.