Rosternomics

Red Sox BOS

200995–67 (0.586)Made Playoffs
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GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2009, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$130M
Win %
0.586
TAB
+3.8
WAB
+8.5
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
42.3
Dead money %
51%
Depth Players
7.0
Dead WAR
-2.8

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2009 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

BJason Varitek108
LGeorge Kottaras39
BVictor Martinez31
RDusty Brown6

1B

RKevin Youkilis78
LCasey Kotchman39
BVictor Martinez25
RJeff Bailey23
LDavid Ortiz6
RAaron Bates5
LAdam LaRoche5

2B

RDustin Pedroia154
RNick Green7
RChris Woodward4
BJed Lowrie2

3B

RMike Lowell107
RKevin Youkilis63
RNick Green9
RChris Woodward7
BJed Lowrie4
RGil Velazquez2
LGeorge Kottaras1
RRocco Baldelli1

SS

RNick Green81
RÁlex González44
RJulio Lugo36
BJed Lowrie26
RGil Velazquez4
RChris Woodward2

LF

RJason Bay150
LJosh Reddick12
LJoey Gathright5
RNick Green3
RKevin Youkilis2
RJeff Bailey2
RRocco Baldelli2
RBrian Anderson1

CF

LJacoby Ellsbury153
RBrian Anderson16
LJoey Gathright10
RRocco Baldelli8
LJonathan Van Every2
LJosh Reddick2

RF

LJ.D. Drew131
RRocco Baldelli35
LJosh Reddick10
RBrian Anderson4
LJonathan Van Every4
RJeff Bailey1
LJavier López1
LChris Carter1
LJoey Gathright1

DH

LDavid Ortiz139
RMike Lowell8
RRocco Baldelli5
LGeorge Kottaras2
RNick Green2
LAdam LaRoche1
LJoey Gathright1
RJason Bay1
LJ.D. Drew1
RJulio Lugo1

Starters

LJon Lester5.3 WAR
RJosh Beckett4.3 WAR
RTim Wakefield1.9 WAR
RBrad Penny1.3 WAR
RJustin Masterson0.8 WAR
RClay Buchholz0.7 WAR
RDaisuke Matsuzaka0.3 WAR
RPaul Byrd0.2 WAR
RJohn Smoltz0.2 WAR
RMichael Bowden-0.0 WAR
RJunichi Tazawa-0.1 WAR

Bullpen

RJonathan Papelbon38 sv
LHideki Okajima23 h
RDaniel Bard13 h
RRamon Ramirez12 h
RManny Delcarmen6 h
LBilly Wagner6 h
RTakashi Saito2 h
LJavier Lopez0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Brad Penny1.3
Victor Martinez1.3
Álex González0.9
Daniel Bard0.7
Rocco Baldelli0.5
Takashi Saito0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Manny Ramirez3.0
Coco Crisp1.7
Alex Cora0.6
Bartolo Colon0.5
Brandon Moss0.5
Kevin Cash0.3

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Red Sox. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2009; everyone else is shown as a 2009 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Jon Lester 2009 +5.3 +106.1 1.0 +105.1 $0.2M 2.50×
Josh Beckett 2009 +4.3 +76.0 11.2 +64.8 $2.6M 2.19×
Kevin Youkilis 2009 +5.9 +64.8 6.2 +58.5 $1.1M 1.37×
Jason Bay 2009 +4.6 +66.1 7.8 +58.3 $1.7M 1.79×
J.D. Drew 2009 +4.9 +69.9 14.0 +55.9 $2.9M 1.79×
Dustin Pedroia 2009 +4.7 +45.0 1.8 +43.3 $0.4M 1.20×
Jonathan Papelbon 2009 +1.9 +29.6 6.2 +23.3 $3.3M 1.95×
Jacoby Ellsbury 2009 +2.1 +20.1 0.4 +19.6 $0.2M 1.22×
Tim Wakefield 2009 +1.9 +22.2 4.0 +18.2 $2.1M 1.49×
Brad Penny 2009 +1.3 +10.7 4.0 +6.7 $3.0M 1.02×
Clay Buchholz 2009 +0.7 +5.9 0.4 +5.5 $0.6M 1.02×
Justin Masterson 2009 +0.8 +4.4 0.3 +4.1 $0.4M 0.67×
Daniel Bard 2009 +0.7 +3.6 0.4 +3.2 $0.6M 0.67×
Victor Martinez 2009 +1.3 +5.4 2.2 +3.1 $1.7M 0.52×
Rocco Baldelli 2009 +0.5 +3.3 0.5 +2.8 $1.0M 0.83×
Álex González 2009 +0.9 +4.6 2.1 +2.5 $2.2M 0.61×
Hideki Okajima 2009 +0.5 +2.9 1.8 +1.1 $3.2M 0.67×
Ramon E Ramirez 2009 +0.3 +1.5 0.4 +1.1 $1.5M 0.67×
Jonathan Van Every 2009 +0.2 +1.1 0.4 +0.7 $2.4M 0.83×
Dusty Brown 2009 +0.2 +0.7 0.4 +0.3 $2.5M 0.52×
Takashi Saito 2009 +0.3 +1.7 1.5 +0.2 $4.6M 0.67×
Joey Gathright 2009 +0.1 +0.5 0.4 +0.1 $5.3M 0.83×
Adam LaRoche 2009 +0.0 +0.2 0.3 -0.1 $9.9M 0.69×
Manny Delcarmen 2009 +0.0 +0.2 0.5 -0.3 $16.6M 0.67×
Dustin Richardson 2009 +0.0 +0.0 0.4 -0.4 $46.5M 0.67×
George Kottaras 2009 -0.0 -0.0 0.4 -0.4 0.52×
Aaron Bates 2009 -0.0 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.56×
Nick Green 2009 -0.0 -0.0 0.6 -0.6 0.61×
Michael Bowden 2009 -0.0 -0.3 0.4 -0.7 0.67×
Junichi Tazawa 2009 -0.1 -0.6 0.5 -1.0 1.02×
Casey Kotchman 2009 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 -1.2 0.56×
Chris Carter 2009 -0.1 -0.9 0.4 -1.3 0.83×
Hunter Jones 2009 -0.2 -1.0 0.4 -1.4 0.67×
John Smoltz 2009 +0.2 +1.5 2.9 -1.4 $15.9M 1.02×
Jed Lowrie 2009 -0.3 -1.6 0.4 -2.0 0.61×
Josh Reddick 2009 -0.3 -1.9 0.4 -2.3 0.83×
Javier López 2009 -0.2 -1.1 1.4 -2.4 0.67×
Mark Kotsay 2009 -0.4 -2.4 0.6 -3.0 0.83×
Jason Varitek 2009 -0.3 -1.1 5.0 -6.1 0.52×
Daisuke Matsuzaka 2009 +0.3 +2.0 8.3 -6.3 $33.2M 1.02×
Julio Lugo 2009 -0.4 -2.4 3.9 -6.3 0.69×
Billy Wagner 2009 +0.3 +1.6 9.3 -7.7 $31.9M 0.67×
David Ortiz 2009 +0.3 +1.7 13.0 -11.3 $41.3M 0.69×
Mike Lowell 2009 -0.0 -0.0 12.5 -12.5 0.58×
Brian Anderson 2009 +0.0 +0.1 0.1 +0.0 $5.2M 0.83×
Billy Traber 2009 -0.2 -1.1 0.67×
Chris Woodward 2009 -0.0 -0.2 0.58×
Enrique Gonzalez 2009 -0.1 -0.5 0.67×
Fernando Cabrera 2009 +0.1 +0.3 0.67×
Gil Velazquez 2009 -0.0 -0.0 0.61×
Jeff Bailey 2009 +0.3 +1.3 0.56×
Paul Byrd 2009 +0.2 +2.0 1.02×
Total+42.4+541.5130.4+409.2

Trades

Every graded 2009 deal involving the Red Sox — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 11 total.

2009 · BOS / STL
BOS · Theo Epstein +$16.8M
Chris Duncan
STL · John Mozeliak −$16.8M
Julio Lugo
BOS came out ahead by $16.8M
2009 · ATL / BOS
ATL · Frank Wren +$4.8M
Adam LaRoche
BOS · Theo Epstein −$4.8M
Casey Kotchman
ATL came out ahead by $4.8M
2009 · MIA / BOS
MIA · Larry Beinfest +$9.6M
Hunter Jones, José Álvarez
BOS · Theo Epstein −$9.6M
Jeremy Hermida
MIA came out ahead by $9.6M
2009 · SEA / BOS
SEA · Jack Zduriencik +$6.4M
David Aardsma
BOS · Theo Epstein −$6.4M
Fabian Williamson
SEA came out ahead by $6.4M
2009 · BOS / CHW
BOS · Theo Epstein +$12.0M
Brian Anderson
CHW · Kenny Williams −$12.0M
Mark Kotsay
BOS came out ahead by $12.0M
2009 · MIN / BOS
MIN · Bill Smith +$1.6M
Chris Province
BOS · Theo Epstein −$1.6M
Boof Bonser
MIN came out ahead by $1.6M
2009 · PIT / BOS
PIT · Neal Huntington +$11.2M
Hunter Strickland, Argenis Díaz
BOS · Theo Epstein −$11.2M
Adam LaRoche
PIT came out ahead by $11.2M
2009 · BAL / BOS
BAL · Andy MacPhail +$0.0M
David Pauley
BOS · Theo Epstein +$0.0M
Randor Bierd
Even trade
2009 · CIN / BOS
CIN · Walt Jocketty +$11.2M
Kristopher Negrón
BOS · Theo Epstein −$11.2M
Álex González
CIN came out ahead by $11.2M
2009 · CLE / BOS
CLE · Mark Shapiro +$124.0M
Nick Hagadone, Bryan Price, Justin Masterson
BOS · Theo Epstein −$124.0M
Víctor Martínez
CLE came out ahead by $124.0M
2009 · NYM / BOS
NYM · Omar Minaya +$16.0M
Chris Carter, Eddie Lora
BOS · Theo Epstein −$16.0M
Billy Wagner
NYM came out ahead by $16.0M

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$130.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
J.D. Drew3311.000$14.0M$14.0M$14.0MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3312.000$13.0M$13.0M$12.5M$14.6M$14.0M$15.0M$16.0M
Mike Lowell3511.000$12.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Beckett298.000$11.2M$12.1M$17.0M$12.8MFREE AGENT
Billy Wagner3714.000$9.3MFREE AGENT
Jason Bay306.000$7.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek3712.000$5.0M$3.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Wakefield4217.000$4.0M$3.5M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Brad Penny319.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Julio Lugo339.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
John Smoltz4221.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Victor Martinez307.000$2.2M$7.7MFREE AGENT
Álex González3211.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Javier López316.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay3312.000$604kFREE AGENT
Rocco Baldelli276.000$500kFREE AGENT
Paul Byrd3814.000FREE AGENT
Chris Woodward3310.000FREE AGENT
Billy Traber296.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Kevin Youkilis305.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Papelbon284.000$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia253.000$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Takashi Saito393.000$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Lester253.000$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kotchman265.000$893kFREE AGENT
Nick Green305.000$550kFREE AGENT
Manny Delcarmen274.000$476kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon E Ramirez273.000$441kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gathright285.000$368kFREE AGENT
Adam LaRoche295.000$282kFREE AGENT
Brian Anderson274.000$107kARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera275.000FREE AGENT
Enrique Gonzalez263.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Daisuke Matsuzaka282.000$8.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hideki Okajima332.000$1.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa230.000$450kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury252.000$450kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie251.000$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz242.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Van Every291.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden221.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Richardson250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dusty Brown270.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Carter261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Jones250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Bates250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Reddick220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Bard240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Masterson241.000$307kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bailey30
Gil Velazquez290.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2009 acquisition stacked onto Red Sox's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.