BOS⇄ARI

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$10.4M net +1.5

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 2.4 ± 2 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2003 odds 92% → 95% (+3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Byung-Hyun KimP·24y·R/R

+$20.9M+$20.9M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.19/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net −$10.4M net -1.5

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $41M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 3.4 ± 5 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2003 odds 17% → 11% (-6.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shea Hillenbrand1B/3B·27y·R/R

+$11.0M+$11.0M± $41M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 3.4± 5 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.