RRosternomics
J.J. Picollo

J.J. Picollo

★ active

General manager for the Royals (2021–present).

6 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record402–506
Win %0.443
+0.3GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.770th/195 execs
3.8Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)172nd/195 execs
-5.7Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)126th/195 execs
44%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)156th/195 execs
$34MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track34th/195 execs
$10MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)66th/195 execs
$-2MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade178th/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees110th/195 execs
-11.0TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total118th/195 execs
-22.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)151st/195 execs
1.88Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)89th/195 execs
-40Roster surplus $M94th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Royals GM 2021–present 5 -22.0 -4.39 -11.0 -6.3 +61.1 +0.9 +6.9 +0.0 1.88 0.443 1 -40
Career total (1985+ data) 6 -22.0 -11.0 -6.3 +61.1 +0.9 +6.9 +0.0 1.88 0.443 1 -40

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+61.1
Trade+0.9
Free agency+6.9
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 74% draft · 19% FA · 6% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across J.J. Picollo's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 94 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Bobby Witt SS KCR Draft 2022 5 +31.4 +6.3
Maikel García 3B KCR Draft 2022 5 +10.5 +2.1
Cole Ragans P KCR Trade 2023 3 +9.1 +3.0 0.2
Michael Wacha P KCR Free agency 2023 3 +8.8 +2.9 12.0
Seth Lugo P KCR Free agency 2023 3 +6.3 +2.1 16.7
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B KCR Draft 2022 4 +4.4 +1.1
Freddy Fermin C KCR Draft 2022 3 +3.7 +1.2
Michael Taylor OF KCR Trade 2021 2 +3.7 +1.8 0.6
Noah Cameron P KCR Draft 2025 2 +3.2 +1.6
Michael Massey 2B KCR Draft 2022 4 +3.2 +0.8
Carter Jensen C/DH KCR Draft 2025 2 +2.3 +1.2
Dairon Blanco OF KCR Draft 2022 2 +1.7 +0.8
Andrew Benintendi OF KCR Trade 2021 2 +1.4 +0.7 0.4
Aroldis Chapman P KCR Trade 2023 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.1
Mike Yastrzemski OF KCR Trade 2025 1 +1.3 +1.3 2.8
Michael Lorenzen P KCR Free agency 2025 2 +1.2 +0.6 1.8
John Schreiber P KCR Trade 2024 2 +1.2 +0.6 4.1
Lane Thomas OF KCR Free agency 2025 1 +1.0 +1.0 1.0
Alec Marsh P KCR Draft 2023 1 +0.9 +0.9
Tyler Tolbert OF KCR Draft 2025 2 +0.9 +0.4
Taylor Clarke P KCR Free agency 2021 2 +0.8 +0.4 0.0
Carlos Estévez P KCR Free agency 2025 1 +0.8 +0.8 2.4
Drew Waters OF KCR Trade 2022 2 +0.7 +0.4
Ryan Yarbrough P KCR Trade 2023 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.1
Paul DeJong SS KCR Trade 2024 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.6
Lucas Erceg P KCR Trade 2024 2 +0.6 +0.3 5.2
Nick Loftin 2B KCR Draft 2023 3 +0.6 +0.2
James McArthur P KCR Trade 2023 2 +0.6 +0.3
Austin Cox P KCR Draft 2023 1 +0.5 +0.5
Garrett Hampson 2B/OF KCR Free agency 2023 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.9
Stephen Kolek P KCR Trade 2025 2 +0.5 +0.2 2.0
Domingo Tapia P KCR Trade 2021 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.2
Hanser Alberto 2B/3B KCR Free agency 2021 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1
Luinder Avila P KCR Draft 2025 2 +0.4 +0.2
Amir Garrett P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Luke Maile C KCR Free agency 2025 2 +0.3 +0.2 0.7
John Rave OF KCR Draft 2025 2 +0.3 +0.2
Joel Payamps P KCR Trade 2021 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.1
Hunter Harvey P KCR Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.1
Isaac Collins OF KCR Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.3
Jordan Lyles P KCR Free agency 2022 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.0
Elías Díaz C KCR Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.2
Luke Weaver P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Wyatt Mills P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Nelson Velázquez DH/OF KCR Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
José Cuas P KCR Draft 2022 2 +0.1 +0.1
John McMillon P KCR Draft 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1
Daniel Mengden P KCR Free agency 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Matt Peacock P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Jake Brentz P KCR Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0
Steven Cruz P KCR Trade 2023 3 -0.0 -0.0
Tyler Duffey P KCR Free agency 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Alex Lange P KCR Free agency 2025 -0.0
Starling Marte OF KCR Free agency 2026 -0.0
Mike Mayers P KCR Free agency 2022 -0.0
Logan Porter C KCR Draft 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0
Anthony Veneziano P KCR Draft 2023 2 +0.0 +0.0
Nick Wittgren P KCR Free agency 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Josh Taylor P KCR Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Anthony Misiewicz P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Trevor Richards P KCR Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Dan Altavilla P KCR Free agency 2023 -0.1
Jonathan Bowlan P KCR Draft 2023 1 -0.1 -0.1
Tyler Cropley C KCR Draft 2023 -0.1
Nate Eaton OF KCR Draft 2022 1 -0.1 -0.1
Tyler Gentry OF KCR Draft 2024 -0.1
Brewer Hicklen OF KCR Draft 2022 -0.1
Brooks Kriske P KCR Free agency 2022 -0.1
Samad Taylor 2B/OF KCR Trade 2022 -0.1
Cavan Biggio 2B KCR Free agency 2025 -0.2
Mason Black P KCR Trade 2025 -0.2
Jac Caglianone OF KCR Draft 2025 1 -0.2 -0.2
Rich Hill P KCR Free agency 2025 -0.2
Sam Long P KCR Free agency 2023 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.7
Josh Rojas 2B/3B KCR Free agency 2026 -0.2
Matt Sauer P KCR Draft 2024 -0.2
Mitch Spence P KCR Trade 2026 -0.2
Chris Stratton P KCR Free agency 2023 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Arodys Vizcaíno P KCR Free agency 2022 -0.2
CJ Alexander 3B KCR Trade 2022 -0.3
Wade Davis P KCR Free agency 2021 4 -0.3 -0.1 1.7
Matt Duffy 3B KCR Free agency 2023 -0.3
Bailey Falter P KCR Trade 2025 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Eli Morgan P KCR Free agency 2026 -0.3
Ronald Bolaños P KCR Trade 2021 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1
Kameron Misner OF KCR Trade 2025 -0.4
Collin Snider P KCR Draft 2022 -0.4
Jackie Bradley OF KCR Free agency 2023 -0.5
Adam Frazier 2B/OF KCR Free agency 2024 1 -0.5 -0.5 1.4
Franmil Reyes DH/OF KCR Free agency 2023 -0.5
Carlos Santana 1B KCR Trade 2022 1 -0.6 -0.6 0.0
Nick Pratto 1B KCR Draft 2022 1 -0.8 -0.8
Hunter Renfroe OF KCR Free agency 2023 1 -0.8 -0.8 0.4
MJ Melendez OF KCR Draft 2022 1 -1.1 -1.1

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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