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Mariners SEA

202664–74 (0.464)
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President of baseball ops: Jerry Dipoto · GM: Justin Hollander · partial season

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2026, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$160M
Surplus $M
-18
Win %
0.464
TAB
-5.8
WAB
-5.7
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
28.4
Dead money %
17%
Depth Players
6.0
Dead WAR
-5.2
Farm System
Total Proj. WAR
66.1
Pitching Proj. WAR
24.7
Hitting Proj. WAR
41.4

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2026 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

BCal Raleigh85
RMitch Garver36
RJhonny Pereda26

1B

LJosh Naylor128
RPatrick Wisdom6
RConnor Joe3
LMiles Mastrobuoni2
RWeston Wilson⇄1

2B

LCole Young134
RBuddy Kennedy⇄5
RRyan Bliss2
Brock Rodden1
LBrendan Donovan1
LMiles Mastrobuoni1
BLeo Rivas1

3B

LBrendan Donovan38
BLeo Rivas28
LJ.P. Crawford28
RWeston Wilson⇄24
Colt Emerson15
RPatrick Wisdom10
LMiles Mastrobuoni4
Brock Rodden3
RWill Wilson2

SS

LJ.P. Crawford62
Colt Emerson54
BLeo Rivas15
Brock Rodden10
LCole Young3

LF

RRandy Arozarena126
RVictor Robles6
LLuke Raley4
RRob Refsnyder4
RConnor Joe3
LMiles Mastrobuoni2
RWeston Wilson⇄1

CF

RJulio Rodríguez120
RVictor Robles21
LLuke Raley7

RF

LLuke Raley78
RVictor Robles36
LDominic Canzone33
RRob Refsnyder17
RConnor Joe14
RWeston Wilson⇄5
LMiles Mastrobuoni4
RTaylor Ward⇄4

DH

LDominic Canzone83
RRob Refsnyder29
BCal Raleigh20
RTaylor Ward⇄15
RMitch Garver8
RJulio Rodríguez7
LLuke Raley5
RRandy Arozarena4
BLeo Rivas2
LJ.P. Crawford1
Brock Rodden1
Colt Emerson1
RPatrick Wisdom1
RRyan Bliss1
RVictor Robles1
RWeston Wilson⇄1

Starters

RBryan Woo3.0 WAR
RLogan Gilbert2.8 WAR
RGeorge Kirby2.4 WAR
REmerson Hancock1.7 WAR
RBryce Miller0.8 WAR
RLuis Castillo⇄0.6 WAR
Kade AndersonNone WAR

Bullpen

★ RAndres Munoz24 sv
REduard Bazardo26 h
LGabe Speier18 h
LJose A. Ferrer13 h
RCooper Criswell3 h
Nick Davila2 h
RMichael Rucker1 h
RAlex Hoppe⇄0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; ⇄ marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
Brendan Donovan1.0
Jhonny Pereda0.4
Alex Hoppe0.3
Michael Rucker0.1
Will Wilson0.1
Cooper Criswell0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Jorge Polanco2.6
Eugenio Suárez0.7
Ben Williamson0.4
Collin Snider0.2
Luke Jackson0.2
Caleb Ferguson0.1

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Mariners. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2026; everyone else is shown as a 2026 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Julio Rodríguez 2023–2026 +18.0 +257.7 58.8 +198.9 $3.3M 1.79× Pre-arb extension · 2023–2034 · $17.4M AAV
Cal Raleigh 2025–2026 +11.0 +112.2 15.3 +96.9 $1.4M 1.28× Arb extension · 2025–2031 · $17.5M AAV
Bryan Woo 2026 +3.5 +61.3 0.8 +60.5 $0.2M 2.19× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Randy Arozarena 2026 +4.6 +66.3 15.7 +50.6 $3.4M 1.79× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $15.7M AAV
Logan Gilbert 2026 +3.3 +51.7 10.9 +40.8 $3.3M 1.96× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $10.9M AAV
J.P. Crawford 2022–2026 +12.5 +89.3 51.0 +38.3 $4.1M 0.89× Arb extension · 2022–2026 · $10.2M AAV
George Kirby 2026 +2.8 +43.2 6.5 +36.7 $2.4M 1.96× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $6.5M AAV
Luis Castillo↔ 2023–2026 +9.0 +106.4 79.0 +27.4 $8.8M 1.49× Arb extension · 2023–2028 · $21.6M AAV
Emerson Hancock 2026 +2.0 +24.3 0.8 +23.5 $0.4M 1.49× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Dominic Canzone 2026 +2.4 +19.3 0.8 +18.5 $0.3M 1.01× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Cole Young 2026 +2.0 +12.9 0.8 +12.1 $0.4M 0.82× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Bryce Miller 2026 +1.0 +7.9 2.4 +5.5 $2.5M 1.02× Arbitration · 2026–2027 · $2.5M AAV
Andrés Muñoz 2026 +1.1 +12.3 7.0 +5.3 $6.1M 1.34× Pre-arb extension · 2022–2025 · $1.9M AAV
Alex Hoppe↔ 2026 +0.3 +1.9 0.5 +1.4 $1.3M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Jhonny Pereda 2026 +0.5 +2.0 0.6 +1.4 $1.2M 0.52× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Casey Legumina↔ 2026 +0.2 +0.9 0.1 +0.8 $0.7M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Matt Brash 2026 +0.4 +2.0 1.6 +0.5 $4.1M 0.67× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $1.6M AAV
Carlos Vargas 2026 +0.2 +1.1 0.8 +0.3 $3.7M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Michael Rucker 2026 +0.1 +0.7 0.5 +0.3 $3.3M 0.67× –
Luke Raley 2026 +0.3 +2.3 2.0 +0.2 $6.0M 0.83× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $2.0M AAV
Eduard Bazardo 2026 +0.2 +0.9 0.9 -0.1 $5.7M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.9M AAV
José Suarez↔ 2026 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.1 – 0.67× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.9M AAV
Will Wilson 2026 +0.1 +0.6 0.7 -0.1 $5.4M 0.58× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Cole Wilcox 2026 -0.0 -0.0 0.2 -0.2 – 0.67× –
Cooper Criswell 2026 +0.1 +0.5 0.8 -0.3 $9.4M 0.67× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Brendan Donovan 2026 +1.2 +5.3 5.8 -0.5 $5.0M 0.58× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $5.8M AAV
Buddy Kennedy↔ 2026 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.5 – 0.56× –
Ryan Bliss 2026 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.5 – 0.56× –
Mitch Garver 2026 +0.2 +0.9 2.2 -1.4 $10.6M 0.52× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $2.2M AAV
Connor Joe 2026 -0.2 -1.4 0.2 -1.6 – 0.83× –
Gabe Speier 2026 +0.1 +0.4 2.1 -1.8 $30.8M 0.67× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $2.1M AAV
Miles Mastrobuoni 2026 -0.3 -1.4 0.8 -2.2 – 0.58× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Josh Simpson 2026 -0.5 -2.5 0.0 -2.5 – 0.67× –
Weston Wilson↔ 2026 -0.6 -2.9 0.4 -3.3 – 0.58× Pre-arbitration · 2026–2026 · $0.8M AAV
Patrick Wisdom 2026 -0.6 -2.9 0.9 -3.8 – 0.58× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $1.0M AAV
Seranthony Domínguez↔ 2026 -0.3 -3.2 1.8 -5.1 – 1.34× Free Agent · 2026–2028 · $10.0M AAV
Taylor Ward↔ 2026 -0.7 -4.0 1.8 -5.8 – 0.69× Arbitration · 2026–2026 · $12.2M AAV
Josh Naylor 2026 +1.2 +5.3 11.3 -6.0 $9.5M 0.56× Free Agent · 2026–2030 · $18.5M AAV
Victor Robles 2025–2026 +0.5 +3.1 9.2 -6.1 $19.7M 0.83× Extension · 2025–2027 · $4.9M AAV
Rob Refsnyder 2026 -1.2 -6.6 6.2 -12.9 – 0.69× Free Agent · 2026–2026 · $6.2M AAV
Stuart Fairchild↔ 2026 +0.0 +0.0 0.0 -0.0 – 0.83× –
Jhonathan Díaz 2026 -0.1 -0.4 – – – 0.67× –
José A. Ferrer 2026 +0.0 +0.3 – – – 1.34× –
Leo Rivas 2026 -0.4 -2.0 – – – 0.58× –
Total—+73.7+864.9301.3+565.1—

Trades

Every graded 2026 deal involving the Mariners — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 14 total.

2026 · CHC / SEA Jun 15, 2026
CHC · Jed Hoyer +$0.0M
Yosver Zulueta
SEA · Jerry Dipoto +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · SEA / NYM Jan 23, 2026
SEA · Jerry Dipoto +$0.0M
Cooper Criswell
NYM · David Stearns +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · PIT / SEA Jun 10, 2026
PIT · Ben Cherington +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
SEA · Jerry Dipoto +$0.0M
Carson Fulmer
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · KCR / SEA Jun 17, 2026
KCR · J.J. Picollo +$5.6M
Randy Dobnak
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$5.6M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · MIA / SEA Feb 16, 2026
MIA · Peter Bendix +$2.4M
cash / PTBNL
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$2.4M
Josh Simpson
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · SEA / ATL Jul 11, 2026
SEA · Jerry Dipoto +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
ATL · Alex Anthopoulos +$0.0M
Carson Taylor
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · SFG / SEA Jun 29, 2026
SFG · Buster Posey +$0.8M
cash / PTBNL
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$0.8M
Buddy Kennedy
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · SEA / MIN Jan 27, 2026
SEA · Jerry Dipoto +$0.8M
Jhonny Pereda
MIN · Derek Falvey −$0.8M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · OAK / SEA May 14, 2026
OAK · David Forst +$0.8M
José Suarez
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$0.8M
cash / PTBNL
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · TBR / SEA Apr 24, 2026
TBR · Erik Neander +$2.4M
Casey Legumina
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$2.4M
Ty Cummings
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · SEA / CIN Jan 15, 2026
SEA · Jerry Dipoto +$0.0M
Yosver Zulueta
CIN · Nick Krall +$0.0M
Dusty Revis
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · SEA / CHW Aug 2, 2026
SEA · Jerry Dipoto +$2.4M
Seranthony Domínguez, Nolan Jones, Boston Smith
CHW · Chris Getz −$2.4M
Luis Castillo
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · BAL / SEA Aug 3, 2026
BAL · Mike Elias +$5.6M
Alex Hoppe, Brock Moore, Harrison Kreiling
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$5.6M
Taylor Ward
Too soon to call unsettled
2026 · STL / TBR / SEA Feb 2, 2026
STL · Chaim Bloom +$1.6M
Colton Ledbetter, Jurrangelo Cijntje#71, Tai Peete, Draft pick (≈#70)
TBR · Erik Neander +$0.8M
Ben Williamson
SEA · Jerry Dipoto −$2.4M
Brendan Donovan
Too soon to call 3-teamunsettled

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$159.7M
luxury tax $164M
2027 guaranteed
$108.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$107M$88M$85M$53M$53M$17M
Proj. arbitration$45M$2M
Proj. pre-arbitration$12M$18M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$182M$108M$103M$71M$71M$53M
Tax space+$62M+$139M+$147M+$182M+$185M+$206M
Est. tax bill——————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-1 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Julio Rodríguez254.000$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$20.2M$18.0MCLUB$18.0M$18.0M
Luis Castillo338.101$19.3M$24.1M$25.0MVESTFREE AGENT
Cal Raleigh294.085$12.7M$13.7M$24.7M$24.7M$24.7M$20.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
J.P. Crawford317.163$12.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Naylor296.127$11.3M$17.3M$19.3M$21.3M$23.3MFREE AGENT
Andrés Muñoz276.080$7.0MCLUB$8.0MCLUB$10.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder357.048$6.2MFREE AGENT
Victor Robles297.033$5.1M$9.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Bryce Miller272.153$2.4M$6.1MCLUBARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Garver358.045$2.2MFREE AGENT
Seranthony Domínguez317.131$1.8M$10.5M$12.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Randy Arozarena315.129$15.7MFREE AGENT
Logan Gilbert294.144$10.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kirby283.151$6.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Donovan294.000$5.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Speier314.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Raley313.106$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Ward325.164$1.8MFREE AGENT
Matt Brash283.121$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Wisdom344.058$888kFREE AGENT
Michael Rucker323.156$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Joe334.068$200kARB 3FREE AGENT
Stuart Fairchild303.114$34kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Suarez284.064$15kARB 3FREE AGENT
José A. Ferrer263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Eduard Bazardo302.118$923kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Woo262.121$832kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Criswell291.143$800kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Canzone282.014$797kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emerson Hancock271.059$793kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miles Mastrobuoni302.043$792kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Vargas261.140$790kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Young220.121$786kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Wilson270.074$667kFREE AGENT
Jhonny Pereda300.140$592kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Hoppe27–$455k
Weston Wilson311.097$435kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Wilcox260.012$171kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Legumina291.111$112kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Kennedy271.131$98kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Simpson281.099$46kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Bliss261.061$38kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonathan Díaz291.119—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Rivas282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2026 acquisition stacked onto Mariners's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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