ANA⇄CHC

ANAANA Billy Eppler net +$12.0M net +2.6

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $14M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 2.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2018 odds 8% → 11% (+2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Félix PeñaP·28y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 2.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$12.0M net -2.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2018 odds 47% → 39% (-7.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.