BOS⇄WSN

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$10.4M net +0.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2007 odds 84% → 83% (-1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris CarterOF·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#506 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Bowden net −$10.4M net -0.7

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2007 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wily Mo PeñaOF·25y·R/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.