RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: AJ Preller

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.12× league · TAB -6.8
-6.8TAB — talent above budget
-3.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-3.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
32%dead money %8th/30
0.495win %18th/30
28.8roster fWAR21st/30
+10surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$176Mpayroll $M13th/30luxury tax $222M

Roster

CFJackson Merrill 65GBryce Johnson 5G
LFRamón Laureano 45GGavin Sheets 14GBryce Johnson 7G
RFFernando Tatis Jr. 43GNick Castellanos 19GBryce Johnson 9G
SSXander Bogaerts 64GSung-Mun Song 5GJake Cronenworth 1G
2BFernando Tatis Jr. 32GJake Cronenworth 30GSung-Mun Song 15G
3BManny Machado 62GMiguel Andujar 5GTy France 2G
1BTy France 44GGavin Sheets 35GNick Castellanos 3G
STARTERSMichael King 1.7WARWalker Buehler 0.9WARRandy Vásquez 0.3WARGriffin Canning 0.3WARLucas Giolito -0.2WAR
CFreddy Fermin 50GLuis Campusano 18GRodolfo Durán 16G
DHMiguel Andujar 45GGavin Sheets 9GNick Castellanos 7G
BULLPEN★ Mason Miller 18svJason Adam 14hAdrian Morejon 11hJeremiah Estrada 6hBradgley Rodriguez 3hWandy Peralta 2hRon Marinaccio 1hYuki Matsui 0h
CFreddy Fermin 50 · Luis Campusano 18 · Rodolfo Durán 16
1BTy France 44 · Gavin Sheets 35 · Nick Castellanos 3
2BFernando Tatis Jr. 32 · Jake Cronenworth 30 · Sung-Mun Song 15
3BManny Machado 62 · Miguel Andujar 5 · Ty France 2
SSXander Bogaerts 64 · Sung-Mun Song 5 · Jake Cronenworth 1
LFRamón Laureano 45 · Gavin Sheets 14 · Bryce Johnson 7
CFJackson Merrill 65 · Bryce Johnson 5
RFFernando Tatis Jr. 43 · Nick Castellanos 19 · Bryce Johnson 9
DHMiguel Andujar 45 · Gavin Sheets 9 · Nick Castellanos 7
SPMichael King 1.7 · Walker Buehler 0.9 · Randy Vásquez 0.3 · Griffin Canning 0.3 · Lucas Giolito -0.2
BP★ Mason Miller 18 · Jason Adam 14 · Adrian Morejon 11 · Jeremiah Estrada 6 · Bradgley Rodriguez 3 · Wandy Peralta 2 · Ron Marinaccio 1 · Yuki Matsui 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2026 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mason Miller 27 pre-arb 394.3 4.0 +24.1
Fernando Tatis Jr. 27 – 963.3 20.7 +0.9
Michael King 31 FA-elig 202.8 9.0 +9.8
Adrian Morejon 27 arb 452.8 3.9 +14.6
Xander Bogaerts 33 FA-elig 922.7 25.5 -7.8
Ty France 31 FA-elig 712.4 1.4 +14.5
Manny Machado 33 FA-elig 942.1 25.1 -10.9
Luis Campusano 27 arb 271.7 0.9 +10.3
Walker Buehler 31 FA-elig 191.5 1.5 +8.7
Nick Pivetta 33 FA-elig 41.5 20.5 -10.6
Bradgley Rodriguez 22 pre-arb 381.4 0.8 +8.3
Jackson Merrill 23 pre-arb 941.3 2.1 +6.3
Samad Taylor 27 – 261.2 0.5 +7.6
Gavin Sheets 30 arb 911.2 4.5 +3.3
Sung-Mun Song 29 – 430.8 – –
Randy Vásquez 27 pre-arb 170.6 0.8 +3.0
Griffin Canning 30 FA-elig 130.5 2.5 +0.8
Wandy Peralta 34 FA-elig 410.5 4.5 -1.4
Jeremiah Estrada 27 pre-arb 210.4 0.8 +2.1
Ramón Laureano 31 FA-elig 530.3 6.5 -4.2
Freddy Fermin 31 pre-arb 590.2 2.1 -0.7
Kyle Hart 33 pre-arb 240.2 1.0 +0.3
Miguel Andujar 31 FA-elig 720.2 1.5 -0.3
David Morgan 26 pre-arb 180.1 0.2 +0.4
Matt Waldron 29 pre-arb 70.1 0.8 -0.3
JP Sears 30 arb 4-0.0 2.8 -2.8
Rodolfo Durán 28 – 36-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Alek Jacob 28 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Luis Rengifo↔ MIL 29 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Blake Hunt 27 – 2-0.1 – –
Nick Solak 31 – 4-0.1 – –
Will Wagner 27 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.6 -1.4
Yuki Matsui 30 pre-arb 25-0.1 5.8 -6.7
Jhony Brito 28 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.8 -1.8
Jason Adam 34 arb 36-0.2 6.7 -7.8
Bryce Johnson 30 pre-arb 32-0.2 0.8 -2.1
Lucas Giolito 31 FA-elig 7-0.3 1.5 -3.7
Ron Marinaccio 30 pre-arb 32-0.5 0.8 -4.0
Jase Bowen 25 – 29-0.6 0.5 -4.2
Jake Cronenworth 32 FA-elig 47-0.6 12.3 -16.5
Germán Márquez 31 FA-elig 9-0.7 1.8 -6.3
Nick Castellanos 34 FA-elig 39-1.4 0.8 -10.1

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
Ty France1.4
Walker Buehler0.9
Samad Taylor0.7
Sung-Mun Song0.5
Griffin Canning0.3
Miguel Andujar0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Dylan Cease3.4
Robert Suarez1.9
Luis Arraez0.9
Stephen Kolek0.8
Ryan O'Hearn0.6
Elias Díaz0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$176.5M
luxury tax $222M
2027 guaranteed
$176.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$189M$180M$146M$84M$84M$72M
Proj. arbitration$19M
Proj. pre-arbitration$15M$1M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$240M$199M$164M$102M$102M$90M
Tax space+$4M+$48M+$86M+$151M+$154M+$169M
Est. tax bill——————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-1 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Xander Bogaerts3312.042$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M$25.5M
Manny Machado3313.056$25.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M$39.1M
Fernando Tatis Jr.277.000$20.7MFREE AGENT
Nick Pivetta337.166$20.5M$14.0MOPT-OUT$18.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Jake Cronenworth326.000$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3M$12.3MFREE AGENT
Michael King316.004$9.0M$32.0MOPT-OUT$34.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Ramón Laureano316.159$6.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Yuki Matsui302.000$5.8M$6.5MOPT-OUT$7.0MPLAYERARB 3FREE AGENT
Wandy Peralta348.168$4.5MOPT-OUT$4.5MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Griffin Canning306.075$2.5M$5.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Jackson Merrill232.000$2.1M$7.1M$9.1M$11.1M$21.1M$21.1M$21.1M
Germán Márquez319.027$1.8M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Walker Buehler317.168$1.5MFREE AGENT
Lucas Giolito318.080$1.5M$8.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Miguel Andujar316.053$1.5M$8.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Ty France316.089$1.4MFREE AGENT
Kyle Hart331.022$1.0M$2.5MCLUBARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos3412.029$780kFREE AGENT
Luis Rengifo296.043$38k$10.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Jason Adam345.132$6.7MFREE AGENT
Gavin Sheets304.076$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Morejon275.140$3.9MFREE AGENT
JP Sears303.065$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Campusano273.003$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Solak315.126—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Mason Miller272.166$4.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Fermin312.165$2.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremiah Estrada272.069$810kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Vásquez271.129$809kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Marinaccio302.064$808kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Johnson301.097$805kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Waldron291.107$797kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhony Brito282.048$792kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bradgley Rodriguez220.020$783kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Wagner270.151$596kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samad Taylor271.071$484kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Morgan260.134$156kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alek Jacob281.059$18kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sung-Mun Song29–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2026; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.