RRosternomics
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Athletics OAK

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GM: David Forst

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.59× league · TAB -9.1
-9.1TAB — talent above budget
-6.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-7.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
57%dead money %27th/30
0.423win %26th/30
18.6roster fWAR28th/30
+31surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$93Mpayroll $M22nd/30luxury tax $123M

Roster

CFLawrence Butler 26GHenry Bolte 26GDenzel Clarke 22G
LFTyler Soderstrom 64GCarlos Cortes 7GColby Thomas 2G
RFLawrence Butler 47GCarlos Cortes 37GColby Thomas 18G
SSJacob Wilson 39GDarell Hernaiz 27GAlika Williams 15G
2BJeff McNeil 59GDarell Hernaiz 11GZack Gelof 8G
3BZack Gelof 32GMax Muncy 26GDarell Hernaiz 12G
1BNick Kurtz 67GJonah Heim 1GAndy Ibáñez 1G
STARTERSJ.T. Ginn 1.0WARLuis Severino 0.6WARAaron Civale 0.2WARJacob Lopez -0.1WARJeffrey Springs -0.4WAR
CShea Langeliers 50GJonah Heim 21G
DHBrent Rooker 42GShea Langeliers 14GCarlos Cortes 9G
BULLPEN★ Hogan Harris 5svJustin Sterner 11hScott Barlow 9hMark Leiter Jr. 4hElvis Alvarado 4hLuis Medina 3hJack Perkins 2hJosé Suarez 1h
CShea Langeliers 50 · Jonah Heim 21
1BNick Kurtz 67 · Jonah Heim 1 · Andy Ibáñez 1
2BJeff McNeil 59 · Darell Hernaiz 11 · Zack Gelof 8
3BZack Gelof 32 · Max Muncy 26 · Darell Hernaiz 12
SSJacob Wilson 39 · Darell Hernaiz 27 · Alika Williams 15
LFTyler Soderstrom 64 · Carlos Cortes 7 · Colby Thomas 2
CFLawrence Butler 26 · Henry Bolte 26 · Denzel Clarke 22
RFLawrence Butler 47 · Carlos Cortes 37 · Colby Thomas 18
DHBrent Rooker 42 · Shea Langeliers 14 · Carlos Cortes 9
SPJ.T. Ginn 1.0 · Luis Severino 0.6 · Aaron Civale 0.2 · Jacob Lopez -0.1 · Jeffrey Springs -0.4
BP★ Hogan Harris 5 · Justin Sterner 11 · Scott Barlow 9 · Mark Leiter Jr. 4 · Elvis Alvarado 4 · Luis Medina 3 · Jack Perkins 2 · José Suarez 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2026 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nick Kurtz 23 pre-arb 925.0 0.8 +32.2
Shea Langeliers 28 arb 873.9 5.2 +20.3
Zack Gelof 26 pre-arb 672.8 0.7 +18.1
Tyler Soderstrom 24 pre-arb 852.6 1.4 +15.5
Jacob Wilson 24 pre-arb 572.4 1.4 +14.3
Gage Jump 23 – 102.2 0.5 +14.1
J.T. Ginn 27 pre-arb 211.7 0.8 +10.4
Henry Bolte 22 – 551.5 0.6 +9.5
Jonah Heim↔ ATL 31 arb 391.2 0.8 +7.2
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 23 – 131.1 – –
Luis Severino 32 FA-elig 121.0 25.0 -18.1
Mark Leiter Jr. 35 – 351.0 2.9 +3.9
Jack Perkins 26 pre-arb 240.7 0.7 +3.7
Luis Medina 27 pre-arb 310.6 0.8 +3.1
Darell Hernaiz 24 pre-arb 470.6 0.8 +3.0
José Suarez↔ ATL 28 arb 230.5 0.5 +2.8
Joel Kuhnel↔ MIL 31 pre-arb 250.4 0.5 +2.3
Hogan Harris 29 pre-arb 450.4 0.8 +1.6
Carlos Cortes 29 pre-arb 740.3 0.8 +1.5
Aaron Civale 31 FA-elig 160.3 6.0 -3.9
Alika Williams 27 pre-arb 370.3 0.6 +1.2
Elvis Alvarado 27 pre-arb 250.2 0.1 +1.2
Brooks Kriske 32 pre-arb 20.1 0.6 +0.3
Michael Stefanic 30 – 20.1 0.0 +0.5
Brian Serven 31 – 20.0 – –
Joey Estes 24 pre-arb 10.0 0.8 -0.6
Brady Basso 28 pre-arb 50.0 0.1 +0.0
Thomas White 23 – 10.0 – –
Brett Harris↔ BOS 28 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Donovan Walton↔ ANA 32 – 1-0.1 – –
Geoff Hartlieb 32 – 4-0.1 – –
Yunior Tur 26 – 1-0.1 – –
Max Muncy 23 pre-arb 46-0.1 0.8 -1.8
Tyler Ferguson↔ CHC 32 – 1-0.2 0.1 -1.4
Jacob Lopez 28 pre-arb 14-0.2 0.8 -2.3
Michael Kelly 33 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.1 -1.6
Brent Rooker 31 arb 48-0.2 8.0 -9.6
Matt Krook↔ WSN 31 – 5-0.3 – –
Mason Barnett 25 pre-arb 13-0.4 0.0 -2.5
Denzel Clarke 26 pre-arb 22-0.5 0.8 -4.0
Andy Ibáñez↔ NYM 33 – 11-0.5 0.8 -4.1
Kade Morris 24 – 3-0.5 0.0 -3.5
Colby Thomas 25 pre-arb 48-0.6 0.8 -5.1
Jeffrey Springs 33 FA-elig 19-0.7 10.5 -15.4
Joey Meneses 34 – 9-0.8 – –
Justin Sterner 29 pre-arb 46-0.9 0.8 -6.6
Luis Morales 23 pre-arb 3-0.9 0.1 -6.0
Austin Wynns↔ ATL 35 – 14-0.9 0.4 -6.3
Jeff McNeil 34 FA-elig 85-0.9 10.0 -16.1
Scott Barlow 33 FA-elig 36-1.2 2.0 -9.9
Lawrence Butler 25 pre-arb 89-2.0 3.7 -16.9

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
Jonah Heim0.7
Mark Leiter Jr.0.6
Luis Medina0.4
José Suarez0.3
Joel Kuhnel0.3
Aaron Civale0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Sean Newcomb1.0
Mason Miller1.0
JP Sears0.7
Max Schuemann0.6
Miguel Andujar0.4
Luis Urías0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$92.7M
luxury tax $123M
2027 guaranteed
$81.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$96M$81M$44M$44M$44M$32M
Proj. arbitration$6M
Proj. pre-arbitration$21M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$141M$99M$62M$62M$62M$50M
Tax space+$103M+$148M+$188M+$191M+$194M+$209M
Est. tax bill——————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-1 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Luis Severino329.170$25.0M$22.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Jeffrey Springs337.055$10.5M$15.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Jeff McNeil347.069$10.0M$15.8MCLUBFREE AGENT
Brent Rooker314.059$8.0M$14.0M$15.0M$19.0M$22.0MVESTFREE AGENT
Aaron Civale316.058$6.0MFREE AGENT
Lawrence Butler252.032$3.7M$5.4M$8.4M$10.4M$14.4M$16.4M$20.0MCLUB
Mark Leiter Jr.359.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Scott Barlow337.026$2.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler Soderstrom242.053$1.4M$6.4M$10.4M$12.4M$16.4M$17.4M$19.4M
Jacob Wilson241.073$1.4M$2.9M$4.9M$9.4M$12.4M$17.4M$19.4M

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Shea Langeliers283.051$5.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Ibáñez333.133$756kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonah Heim315.097$750kFREE AGENT
José Suarez284.064$470kARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Wynns355.017$366kFREE AGENT
Joey Meneses343.065—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Serven313.012—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Luis Medina272.146$835kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colby Thomas250.079$820kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Estes241.031$820kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.T. Ginn271.039$785kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darell Hernaiz241.040$785kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Kurtz231.000$785kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hogan Harris291.146$785kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Muncy23–$780k
Jacob Lopez280.160$780kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Sterner290.169$780kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Cortes290.069$780kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denzel Clarke260.129$780kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Gelof262.051$745kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Perkins260.099$713kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Kriske321.019$601kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alika Williams271.032$559kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Kuhnel311.127$515kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elvis Alvarado270.101$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Ferguson321.089$71kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Kelly331.124$67kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Morales230.059$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brady Basso281.029$53kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Harris280.105$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Stefanic302.093$18kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Barnett250.034$17kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donovan Walton32–—
Matt Krook311.048—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geoff Hartlieb322.158—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2026; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.