CHC⇄TEX

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$7.2M net +1.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $7M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2018 odds 33% → 39% (+5.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesse ChavezP·34y·R/R

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$7.2M net -1.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2018 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler ThomasP·22y·R/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#225 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.