SDP⇄CHC

SDPSDP AJ Preller net +$42.4M net +10.8

received +$12.0M+$16.8M ± $41M expected surplus · +$35.2M realized received 13.9 ± 5 expected · 10.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2021 odds 12% → 21% (+8.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yu DarvishP·34y·R/R

+$8.8M+$13.3M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$36.0M 12.4± 5 exp WARrealized 10.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

2.41/yr blended

Horizon

8.0 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Víctor CaratiniC·27y·B/R

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$42.4M net -10.8

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $24M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 3.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2021 odds 2% → 1% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach DaviesP·28y·R/R

+$8.0M+$8.0M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.40/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Owen CaissieOF·18y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#45 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Yeison Santana

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Reginald Preciado

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Ismael Mena

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.