SEA⇄BOS

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net +$6.4M net +2.3

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $13M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2009 odds 12% → 18% (+5.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David AardsmaP·27y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$6.4M net -2.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2009 odds 66% → 55% (-11.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fabian WilliamsonP·20y·R/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#651 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.