ARI⇄BOS

ARIARI Bob Gebhard net +$8.8M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Kenny PerezSS·23y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#182 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Kyle BonoP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#245 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$8.8M net +0.0

received +$16.8M+$10.4M ± $15M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

José CruzOF·31y·B/R

+$16.5M+$10.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.77/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.