RRosternomics
Preston Mattingly

Preston Mattingly

★ active

General manager for the Phillies (2025–present).

2 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record150–110
Win %0.577
+2.1GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.834th/195 execs
7.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)44th/195 execs
-3.6Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)15th/195 execs
26%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)32nd/195 execs
$32MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track42nd/195 execs
$-7MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)195th/195 execs
$33MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade5th/195 execs
$2MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees58th/195 execs
+9.2TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total56th/195 execs
+5.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)55th/195 execs
4.13Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)12th/195 execs
-208Roster surplus $M156th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Phillies GM 2025–present 1 +5.8 +5.83 +9.2 -40.2 -1.0 +0.8 -5.6 +0.0 4.13 0.577 1 -208
Career total (1985+ data) 2 +5.8 +9.2 -40.2 -1.0 +0.8 -5.6 +0.0 4.13 0.577 1 -208

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)-1.0
Trade+0.8
Free agency-5.6
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 0% draft · 26% FA · 74% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Preston Mattingly's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 23 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Jesús Luzardo P PHI Trade 2025 2 +8.6 +4.3 23.5
Jhoan Durán P PHI Trade 2025 2 +1.9 +1.0 3.9
Harrison Bader OF PHI Trade 2025 1 +1.2 +1.2 5.4
Derek Hill OF PHI Trade 2026 1 +0.8 +0.8 4.7
Jonathan Bowlan P PHI Trade 2026 1 +0.8 +0.8 4.5
Max Kepler OF PHI Trade 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.7
Tim Mayza P PHI Free agency 2026 1 +0.5 +0.5 3.2
Walker Buehler P PHI Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.5
Justin Crawford OF PHI Draft 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2
Brad Keller P PHI Free agency 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.0
Trevor Richards P PHI Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.9
Zach Pop P PHI Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.6
Alan Rangel P PHI Draft 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1
Kyle Backhus P PHI Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Steward Berroa OF PHI Trade 2026 -0.0
Adolis García OF PHI Free agency 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Nolan Hoffman P PHI Trade 2025 2 +0.0 +0.0
Andrew Painter P PHI Draft 2026 -0.0
Lou Trivino P PHI Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.5
Daniel Robert P PHI Trade 2025 -0.1
Dylan Moore 2B/OF PHI Free agency 2026 -0.2
Felix Reyes 1B/OF PHI Draft 2026 -0.4
Otto Kemp 3B/OF PHI Draft 2025 -0.9

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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