CHC⇄MIN⇄WSN⇄BOS

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$8.0M net +7.6

received +$23.2M+$23.2M ± $28M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 7.9 ± 4 expected · 6.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2004 odds 72% → 81% (+8.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nomar GarciaparraSS·30y·R/R

+$17.1M+$17.1M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$38.4M 5.9± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.9/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

3.95/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Matt MurtonOF·22y·R/R

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$24.0M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 5.2

Prior

#32 overall draft pick → 0.35/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$9.6M net +0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2004 odds 36% → 40% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin Jones

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Omar Minaya net −$12.0M net -1.7

received −$8.0M−$11.2M ± $40M expected surplus · −$22.4M realized received 2.9 ± 5 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brendan HarrisSS·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#138 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Francis BeltránP·24y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.3± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Alex GonzalezSS·31y·R/R

−$6.6M−$10.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$15.2M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.01/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$5.6M net -6.5

received +$19.2M−$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · −$20.0M realized received 5.5 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2004 odds 76% → 71% (-4.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Doug Mientkiewicz1B·30y·L/R

+$13.2M+$4.9M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 2.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.83/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Orlando CabreraSS·29y·R/R

+$6.0M−$7.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.89/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.