BOS⇄SDP

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Blaine NealP·27y·L/R

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#104 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $11M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Adam HyzduOF·33y·R/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.