MIA⇄CHC

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$6.4M net +0.8

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $11M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 2.1 ± 1 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2012 odds 1% → 2% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos ZambranoP·31y·B/R

+$20.6M+$20.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 2.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.11/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$6.4M net -0.8

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $22M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2012 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris VolstadP·25y·R/R

+$14.2M+$14.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.41/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.73/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.