Rosternomics

Red Sox BOS

201190–72 (0.556)
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GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2011, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$168M
Win %
0.556
TAB
+10.0
WAB
+0.9
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
51.1
Dead money %
41%
Depth Players
10.0
Dead WAR
-4.0

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2011 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

BJarrod Saltalamacchia101
BJason Varitek68
RRyan Lavarnway8

1B

LAdrián González156
RConor Jackson6
LLars Anderson6
RKevin Youkilis6
BDrew Sutton5
BJed Lowrie4
LDavid Ortiz2

2B

RDustin Pedroia159
RMike Aviles11
BDrew Sutton7
RMarco Scutaro2
BJed Lowrie1
LNate Spears1

3B

RKevin Youkilis112
BJed Lowrie33
RMike Aviles19
BDrew Sutton8
RConor Jackson1

SS

RMarco Scutaro109
BJed Lowrie49
RJose Iglesias8
RMike Aviles6
BDrew Sutton4

LF

LCarl Crawford127
RDarnell McDonald23
LJosh Reddick21
LJoey Gathright4
RMike Cameron4
BDrew Sutton3
RYamaico Navarro3
RConor Jackson2
RMike Aviles1
LNate Spears1

CF

LJacoby Ellsbury154
RDarnell McDonald13
LJosh Reddick3

RF

LJ.D. Drew76
LJosh Reddick56
RDarnell McDonald37
RMike Cameron25
RConor Jackson3
LAdrián González2
RMike Aviles2

DH

LDavid Ortiz136
RRyan Lavarnway8
RDarnell McDonald5
RKevin Youkilis4
LJacoby Ellsbury3
LJosh Reddick2
LCarl Crawford2
LAdrián González2
BJed Lowrie2
RMike Cameron2
RConor Jackson1
LJoey Gathright1
BDrew Sutton1

Starters

RJosh Beckett3.7 WAR
LJon Lester2.6 WAR
RJohn Lackey0.9 WAR
RClay Buchholz0.7 WAR
LErik Bedard0.7 WAR
RAlfredo Aceves0.6 WAR
RDaisuke Matsuzaka0.2 WAR
RTim Wakefield-0.0 WAR
LAndrew Miller-0.2 WAR
RKyle Weiland-0.4 WAR

Bullpen

RJonathan Papelbon31 sv
RDaniel Bard34 h
RAlfredo Aceves11 h
RMatt Albers10 h
LFranklin Morales10 h
RDan Wheeler4 h
RBobby Jenks2 h
RScott Atchison0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Adrián González6.1
Erik Bedard0.7
Alfredo Aceves0.6
Drew Sutton0.4
Dan Wheeler0.3
Ryan Lavarnway0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Adrian Beltré6.4
Victor Martinez3.7
Robert Coello0.1
Felipe Lopez0.1
Jonathan Van Every0.0
Matt Fox-0.0

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Red Sox. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2011; everyone else is shown as a 2011 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Jacoby Ellsbury 2011 +9.5 +155.1 2.4 +152.7 $0.3M 2.05×
Dustin Pedroia 2011 +7.9 +86.8 5.8 +81.0 $0.7M 1.38×
Adrián González 2011 +6.1 +67.3 6.3 +61.0 $1.0M 1.37×
Jonathan Papelbon 2011 +3.0 +62.6 12.0 +50.6 $3.9M 2.57×
Josh Beckett 2011 +3.7 +64.9 17.0 +47.9 $4.6M 2.19×
Jon Lester 2011 +2.6 +40.0 5.8 +34.2 $2.2M 1.96×
David Ortiz 2011 +3.7 +44.2 12.5 +31.7 $3.4M 1.49×
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2011 +3.4 +27.4 0.8 +26.6 $0.2M 1.00×
Marco Scutaro 2011 +2.7 +25.8 5.5 +20.3 $2.0M 1.18×
Josh Reddick 2011 +2.0 +19.3 0.4 +18.9 $0.2M 1.22×
Kevin Youkilis 2011 +3.5 +31.2 12.2 +18.9 $3.5M 1.12×
Daniel Bard 2011 +1.3 +14.4 0.5 +13.9 $0.4M 1.34×
Alfredo Aceves 2011 +0.6 +6.7 0.7 +6.1 $1.0M 1.34×
Clay Buchholz 2011 +0.7 +5.9 0.6 +5.3 $0.8M 1.02×
Erik Bedard 2011 +0.7 +5.4 0.3 +5.1 $0.5M 1.02×
Drew Sutton 2011 +0.4 +2.0 0.2 +1.7 $0.6M 0.58×
Scott Atchison 2011 +0.3 +1.8 0.4 +1.3 $1.3M 0.67×
Mike Aviles 2011 +0.2 +1.1 0.3 +0.9 $1.1M 0.58×
Rich Hill 2011 +0.2 +1.3 0.4 +0.9 $1.7M 0.67×
Ryan Lavarnway 2011 +0.2 +1.0 0.1 +0.9 $0.4M 0.52×
Jed Lowrie 2011 +0.2 +1.1 0.5 +0.6 $2.0M 0.61×
Yamaico Navarro 2011 +0.1 +0.9 0.3 +0.5 $2.4M 0.83×
Randy Williams 2011 +0.0 +0.2 0.1 +0.2 $1.6M 0.67×
Franklin Morales 2011 +0.1 +0.4 0.3 +0.1 $4.2M 0.67×
Darnell McDonald 2011 +0.0 +0.2 0.5 -0.3 $15.9M 0.83×
Tommy Hottovy 2011 -0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.67×
Matt Albers 2011 +0.1 +0.5 0.9 -0.4 $9.1M 0.67×
Michael Bowden 2011 +0.0 +0.0 0.4 -0.4 $46.0M 0.67×
Félix Doubront 2011 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 -1.1 0.67×
Lars Anderson 2011 -0.2 -0.7 0.4 -1.1 0.56×
Dennys Reyes 2011 -0.1 -0.4 0.9 -1.3 0.67×
Conor Jackson 2011 -0.3 -1.2 0.3 -1.5 0.56×
Hideki Okajima 2011 +0.1 +0.3 1.8 -1.5 $34.2M 0.67×
Dan Wheeler 2011 +0.3 +1.4 3.0 -1.6 $11.3M 0.67×
Junichi Tazawa 2011 -0.0 -0.2 1.5 -1.7 0.67×
Tim Wakefield 2011 -0.0 -0.0 2.0 -2.0 1.02×
Andrew Miller 2011 -0.2 -1.4 1.3 -2.7 1.02×
Jose Iglesias 2011 -0.2 -0.8 2.1 -2.9 0.61×
Kyle Weiland 2011 -0.4 -3.3 0.4 -3.7 1.02×
Bobby Jenks 2011 +0.0 +0.1 6.0 -5.9 $217.8M 0.67×
Jason Varitek 2011 -1.2 -4.9 2.0 -6.9 0.52×
John Lackey 2011 +0.9 +7.7 15.9 -8.2 $16.8M 1.02×
Daisuke Matsuzaka 2011 +0.2 +1.4 10.3 -8.9 $59.8M 1.02×
Mike Cameron 2011 -1.0 -6.5 3.3 -9.8 0.83×
Carl Crawford 2011 -0.0 -0.3 14.9 -15.1 0.83×
J.D. Drew 2011 -0.3 -1.8 14.0 -15.8 0.83×
Joey Gathright 2011 +0.0 +0.1 0.0 +0.0 $3.3M 0.83×
Trever Miller 2011 +0.0 +0.2 0.1 +0.0 $4.2M 0.67×
Nate Spears 2011 -0.1 -0.4 0.56×
Total+50.6+656.0167.9+488.2

Trades

Every graded 2011 deal involving the Red Sox — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 8 total.

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$167.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Josh Beckett319.030$17.0M$12.8MFREE AGENT
John Lackey328.095$15.9MFREE AGENT$15.2M$10.3M
Carl Crawford298.072$14.9M$20.4MFREE AGENT
J.D. Drew3512.020$14.0MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3512.048$12.5M$14.6M$14.0M$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Youkilis326.093$12.2M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia2714.041$5.8M$8.0M$10.0M$12.5M$12.5M$13.0M$15.0M
Marco Scutaro357.138$5.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Cameron3814.036$3.3MFREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler338.047$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek3913.020$2.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Wakefield4419.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Dennys Reyes3414.000$900kFREE AGENT
Erik Bedard327.171$333kFREE AGENT
Trever Miller3810.095$125kFREE AGENT
Randy Williams357.000$75kFREE AGENT
Joey Gathright307.000$38kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Jonathan Papelbon305.064$12.0MFREE AGENT
Daisuke Matsuzaka304.000$10.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrián González295.108$6.3MFREE AGENT
Bobby Jenks305.090$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester274.075$5.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury273.037$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hideki Okajima354.000$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Albers283.141$875kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia263.043$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Hill313.062$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conor Jackson295.067$337kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Jose Iglesias210.000$2.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa251.058$1.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Miller262.132$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Aceves282.014$650kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz262.059$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Bard261.148$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darnell McDonald322.143$470kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie272.111$450kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Atchison352.106$440kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden242.030$418kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Reddick240.109$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Doubront230.074$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lars Anderson230.053$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Weiland240.040$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklin Morales252.007$305kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yamaico Navarro231.001$303kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Aviles302.121$267kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Sutton281.074$247kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Hottovy29$97k
Ryan Lavarnway230.000$93kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Spears26

Graphs

How each 2011 acquisition stacked onto Red Sox's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.