RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.76× league · TAB +9.9
+9.9TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+0.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
41%dead money %20th/30
0.556win %8th/30
51.1roster fWAR3rd/30
-42surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$168Mpayroll $M3rd/30

Roster

CFJacoby Ellsbury 154GDarnell McDonald 13GJosh Reddick 3G
LFCarl Crawford 127GConor Jackson 23GDarnell McDonald 23G
RFJ.D. Drew 76GJosh Reddick 56GDarnell McDonald 37G
SSMarco Scutaro 109GJed Lowrie 49GMike Aviles 14G
2BDustin Pedroia 159GMike Aviles 27GDrew Sutton 7G
3BKevin Youkilis 112GMike Aviles 46GJed Lowrie 33G
1BAdrián González 156GConor Jackson 53GKevin Youkilis 6G
STARTERSJosh Beckett 3.7WARJon Lester 2.6WARJohn Lackey 0.9WARErik Bedard 0.7WARClay Buchholz 0.7WAR
CJarrod Saltalamacchia 101GJason Varitek 68GRyan Lavarnway 8G
DHDavid Ortiz 136GRyan Lavarnway 8GDarnell McDonald 5G
BULLPEN★ Jonathan Papelbon 31svDaniel Bard 34hAlfredo Aceves 11hMatt Albers 10hFranklin Morales 10hTrever Miller 5hDan Wheeler 4hBobby Jenks 2h
CJarrod Saltalamacchia 101 · Jason Varitek 68 · Ryan Lavarnway 8
1BAdrián González 156 · Conor Jackson 53 · Kevin Youkilis 6
2BDustin Pedroia 159 · Mike Aviles 27 · Drew Sutton 7
3BKevin Youkilis 112 · Mike Aviles 46 · Jed Lowrie 33
SSMarco Scutaro 109 · Jed Lowrie 49 · Mike Aviles 14
LFCarl Crawford 127 · Conor Jackson 23 · Darnell McDonald 23
CFJacoby Ellsbury 154 · Darnell McDonald 13 · Josh Reddick 3
RFJ.D. Drew 76 · Josh Reddick 56 · Darnell McDonald 37
DHDavid Ortiz 136 · Ryan Lavarnway 8 · Darnell McDonald 5
SPJosh Beckett 3.7 · Jon Lester 2.6 · John Lackey 0.9 · Erik Bedard 0.7 · Clay Buchholz 0.7
BP★ Jonathan Papelbon 31 · Daniel Bard 34 · Alfredo Aceves 11 · Matt Albers 10 · Franklin Morales 10 · Trever Miller 5 · Dan Wheeler 4 · Bobby Jenks 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jacoby Ellsbury 27 arb 1589.5 2.4 +20.8
Dustin Pedroia 27 arb 1597.9 5.8 +13.6
Adrián González 29 FA-elig 1596.1 6.3 +8.7
Josh Beckett 31 FA-elig 303.7 17.0 -7.9
David Ortiz 35 FA-elig 1463.7 12.5 -3.4
Kevin Youkilis 32 FA-elig 1203.5 12.2 -3.7
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 26 arb 1033.4 0.8 +7.6
Jonathan Papelbon 30 FA-elig 633.0 12.0 -4.5
Marco Scutaro 35 FA-elig 1132.7 5.5 +1.2
Jon Lester 27 arb 312.6 5.8 +0.5
Josh Reddick 24 pre-arb 872.0 0.4 +4.4
Daniel Bard 26 pre-arb 701.3 0.5 +2.8
John Lackey 32 FA-elig 280.9 15.9 -13.6
Clay Buchholz 26 arb 140.7 0.6 +1.2
Erik Bedard↔ SEA 32 FA-elig 80.7 0.3 +1.3
Alfredo Aceves 28 arb 550.6 0.7 +0.9
Drew Sutton 28 pre-arb 310.4 0.2 +0.8
Scott Atchison 35 FA-elig 170.3 0.4 +0.4
Dan Wheeler 33 FA-elig 470.3 3.0 -2.4
Ryan Lavarnway 23 – 170.2 0.1 +0.5
Mike Aviles↔ KCR 30 arb 380.2 0.3 +0.3
Rich Hill 31 arb 90.2 0.4 +0.2
Jed Lowrie 27 arb 880.2 0.5 +0.1
Daisuke Matsuzaka 30 arb 80.2 10.3 -9.9
Yamaico Navarro↔ KCR 23 pre-arb 160.1 0.3 +0.0
Matt Albers 28 arb 560.1 0.9 -0.6
Franklin Morales↔ COL 25 arb 360.1 0.3 -0.1
Hideki Okajima 35 arb 70.1 1.8 -1.6
Randy Williams 35 – 70.0 0.1 +0.0
Darnell McDonald 32 FA-elig 790.0 0.5 -0.4
Trever Miller↔ STL 38 FA-elig 30.0 0.1 -0.1
Bobby Jenks 30 FA-elig 190.0 6.0 -5.9
Joey Gathright 30 – 70.0 0.0 -0.0
Michael Bowden 24 pre-arb 140.0 0.4 -0.4
Tim Wakefield 44 FA-elig 33-0.0 2.0 -2.0
Tommy Hottovy 29 – 8-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Carl Crawford 29 FA-elig 130-0.0 14.9 -15.0
Junichi Tazawa 25 pre-arb 3-0.0 1.5 -1.6
Dennys Reyes 34 FA-elig 4-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Nate Spears 26 – 3-0.1 – –
Félix Doubront 23 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Lars Anderson 23 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Jose Iglesias 21 pre-arb 10-0.2 2.1 -2.5
Andrew Miller 26 pre-arb 17-0.2 1.3 -1.7
Conor Jackson↔ OAK 29 FA-elig 12-0.3 0.3 -1.0
J.D. Drew 35 FA-elig 81-0.3 14.0 -14.7
Kyle Weiland 24 pre-arb 7-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Mike Cameron↔ MIA 38 FA-elig 33-1.0 3.3 -5.7
Jason Varitek 39 FA-elig 68-1.2 2.0 -4.9

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Adrián González6.1
Erik Bedard0.7
Alfredo Aceves0.6
Drew Sutton0.4
Dan Wheeler0.3
Ryan Lavarnway0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Adrian Beltré6.4
Victor Martinez3.7
Robert Coello0.1
Felipe Lopez0.1
Jonathan Van Every0.0
Matt Fox-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$167.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Josh Beckett319.030$17.0M$12.8MFREE AGENT
John Lackey328.095$15.9MFREE AGENT$15.2M$10.3M
Carl Crawford298.072$14.9M$20.4MFREE AGENT
J.D. Drew3512.020$14.0MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3512.048$12.5M$14.6M$14.0M$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Youkilis326.093$12.2M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia2714.041$5.8M$8.0M$10.0M$12.5M$12.5M$13.0M$15.0M
Marco Scutaro357.138$5.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Cameron3814.036$3.3MFREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler338.047$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek3913.020$2.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Wakefield4419.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Dennys Reyes3414.000$900kFREE AGENT
Erik Bedard327.171$333kFREE AGENT
Trever Miller3810.095$125kFREE AGENT
Randy Williams357.000$75kFREE AGENT
Joey Gathright307.000$38kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Jonathan Papelbon305.064$12.0MFREE AGENT
Daisuke Matsuzaka304.000$10.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrián González295.108$6.3MFREE AGENT
Bobby Jenks305.090$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester274.075$5.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury273.037$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hideki Okajima354.000$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Albers283.141$875kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia263.043$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Hill313.062$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conor Jackson295.067$337kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Jose Iglesias210.000$2.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa251.058$1.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Miller262.132$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Aceves282.014$650kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz262.059$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Bard261.148$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darnell McDonald322.143$470kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie272.111$450kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Atchison352.106$440kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden242.030$418kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Reddick240.109$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Doubront230.074$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lars Anderson230.053$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Weiland240.040$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklin Morales252.007$305kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yamaico Navarro231.001$303kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Aviles302.121$267kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Sutton281.074$247kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Hottovy29–$97k
Ryan Lavarnway230.000$93kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Spears26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.