RRosternomics

Red Sox BOS

GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.7× league · TAB +0.6
+0.6TAB — talent above budget16th/30
+6.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-3.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
14%dead money %4th/30
0.586win %3rd/30
41.4roster fWAR5th/30
-47surplus $M (value vs cost)29th/30
$123Mpayroll $M2nd/30

2005: made playoffs · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJohnny Damon 147GGabe Kapler 12GAdam Hyzdu 8G
LFManny Ramirez 149GKevin Millar 20GAdam Hyzdu 14G
RFTrot Nixon 118GJay Payton 31GGabe Kapler 22G
SSEdgar Renteria 153GAlex Cora 35GHanley Ramirez 2G
2BTony Graffanino 73GAlex Cora 50GBill Mueller 5G
3BBill Mueller 142GKevin Youkilis 24GRamón Vázquez 8G
1BKevin Millar 110GJohn Olerud 80GDave McCarty 12G
STARTERSDavid Wells 3.0WARMatt Clement 2.6WARBronson Arroyo 2.4WARTim Wakefield 1.8WARCurt Schilling 1.7WAR
CJason Varitek 130GDoug Mirabelli 43GKelly Shoppach 7G
DHDavid Ortiz 148GDoug Mirabelli 5GTrot Nixon 2G
BULLPEN Mike Timlin 13svMike Myers 9hMike Stanton 9hChad Bradford 8hMatt Mantei 8hMike Remlinger 5hChad Harville 2hKeith Foulke 1h
CJason Varitek 130 · Doug Mirabelli 43 · Kelly Shoppach 7
1BKevin Millar 110 · John Olerud 80 · Dave McCarty 12
2BTony Graffanino 73 · Alex Cora 50 · Bill Mueller 5
3BBill Mueller 142 · Kevin Youkilis 24 · Ramón Vázquez 8
SSEdgar Renteria 153 · Alex Cora 35 · Hanley Ramirez 2
LFManny Ramirez 149 · Kevin Millar 20 · Adam Hyzdu 14
CFJohnny Damon 147 · Gabe Kapler 12 · Adam Hyzdu 8
RFTrot Nixon 118 · Jay Payton 31 · Gabe Kapler 22
DHDavid Ortiz 148 · Doug Mirabelli 5 · Trot Nixon 2
SPDavid Wells 3.0 · Matt Clement 2.6 · Bronson Arroyo 2.4 · Tim Wakefield 1.8 · Curt Schilling 1.7
BP Mike Timlin 13 · Mike Myers 9 · Mike Stanton 9 · Chad Bradford 8 · Matt Mantei 8 · Mike Remlinger 5 · Chad Harville 2 · Keith Foulke 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
David Ortiz 29 FA-elig 1595.3 5.2 +4.7
Trot Nixon 31 FA-elig 1243.8 7.5 -0.4
Jason Varitek 33 FA-elig 1333.5 8.0 -1.3
Bill Mueller 34 FA-elig 1503.5 2.5 +4.0
David Wells 42 FA-elig 303.0 4.1 +1.5
Manny Ramirez 33 FA-elig 1522.9 22.0 -16.5
Johnny Damon 31 FA-elig 1482.7 8.2 -3.1
Matt Clement 30 FA-elig 322.6 6.5 -1.6
Bronson Arroyo 28 arb 352.4 1.9 +2.7
Mike Timlin 39 FA-elig 811.8 2.8 +0.7
Tim Wakefield 38 FA-elig 331.8 4.7 -1.2
Edgar Renteria 28 FA-elig 1531.8 8.0 -4.6
Curt Schilling 38 FA-elig 321.7 14.5 -11.3
Tony Graffanino↔ KCR 33 FA-elig 511.3 0.5 +1.9
Wade Miller 28 FA-elig 161.1 1.5 +0.6
Kevin Youkilis 26 pre-arb 440.6 0.3 +0.8
Mark Bellhorn↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 850.6 2.5 -1.3
Jay Payton↔ OAK 32 FA-elig 550.6 1.6 -0.5
Kevin Millar 33 FA-elig 1340.5 3.5 -2.6
Gabe Kapler 29 360.4
Doug Mirabelli 34 FA-elig 500.4 1.5 -0.7
John Olerud 36 870.4
Jonathan Papelbon 24 170.3
Chad Bradford 30 310.3
Alex Cora↔ CLE 29 FA-elig 470.3 1.3 -0.8
Lenny DiNardo 25 80.2
Geremi Gonzalez 30 280.2
Dave McCarty 35 FA-elig 130.2 0.6 -0.2
Mike Myers 36 FA-elig 650.1 0.6 -0.3
Alejandro Machado 23 100.1
Manny Delcarmen 23 100.0
Mike Stanton↔ NYY 38 FA-elig 10.0 0.1 -0.0
Adam Hyzdu↔ SDP 33 arb 120.0 0.2 -0.1
Scott Cassidy↔ SDP 29 10.0
John Halama↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 300.0 0.6 -0.6
Roberto Petagine 34 180.0
Matt Perisho↔ MIA 30 FA-elig 10.0 0.0 -0.0
José Cruz Jr.↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 4-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Shawn Wooten 32 1-0.0
Hanley Ramirez 21 2-0.0
Abe Alvarez 22 2-0.0
Adam Stern 25 pre-arb 36-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Craig Hansen 21 4-0.1
Chad Harville↔ HOU 28 FA-elig 8-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Blaine Neal↔ COL 27 arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Mike Remlinger↔ CHC 39 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.8 -1.1
Matt Mantei 31 FA-elig 34-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Cla Meredith 22 3-0.2
Kelly Shoppach 25 9-0.3
Alan Embree↔ NYY 35 FA-elig 43-0.3 1.9 -2.6
Keith Foulke 32 FA-elig 43-0.4 7.5 -8.3
Ramón Vázquez↔ CLE 28 arb 27-1.0 0.5 -2.4

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
David Wells3.0
Matt Clement2.6
Edgar Renteria1.8
Tony Graffanino1.3
Wade Miller1.1
Jay Payton0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Pedro Martínez4.8
Derek Lowe2.3
Orlando Cabrera0.7
Scott Williamson0.4
Nomar Garciaparra0.4
Dave Roberts0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$122.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Manny Ramirez3312.000$22.0M$18.3M$17.0M$12.4MFREE AGENT
Curt Schilling3817.000$14.5M$13.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Johnny Damon3110.000$8.2MFREE AGENT
Edgar Renteria289.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek338.000$8.0M$10.0M$11.0M$10.4M$5.0M$3.0M$2.0M
Trot Nixon319.000$7.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Keith Foulke328.000$7.5M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Matt Clement307.000$6.5M$9.8MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz298.000$5.2M$6.5M$13.2M$13.0M$13.0M$13.0M$12.5M
Tim Wakefield3813.000$4.7M$4.0M$4.0M$4.0M$4.0M$3.5M$2.0M
David Wells4218.000$4.1M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millar337.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Timlin3914.000$2.8M$3.0M$2.8M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Bill Mueller349.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Bellhorn308.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Alan Embree3513.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Jay Payton327.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Wade Miller286.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Doug Mirabelli349.000$1.5M$1.2M$750kFREE AGENT
Alex Cora297.000$1.3M$1.4M$2.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Remlinger3914.000$788kFREE AGENT
Matt Mantei3110.000$750kFREE AGENT
John Halama337.000$638kFREE AGENT
Mike Myers3610.000$600kFREE AGENT
Dave McCarty3512.000$550kFREE AGENT
Tony Graffanino339.000$510kFREE AGENT
José Cruz Jr.318.000$139kFREE AGENT
Mike Stanton3816.000$68kFREE AGENT
Chad Harville286.000$65kFREE AGENT
Matt Perisho308.000$19kFREE AGENT
Geremi Gonzalez308.000FREE AGENT
John Olerud3616.000FREE AGENT
Roberto Petagine3411.000FREE AGENT
Chad Bradford307.000FREE AGENT
Gabe Kapler297.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Bronson Arroyo285.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Ramón Vázquez284.000$485kARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Hyzdu335.000$155kFREE AGENT
Blaine Neal274.000$135kARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Wooten325.000FREE AGENT
Scott Cassidy293.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Kevin Youkilis261.000$323kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Stern250.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro Machado23
Lenny DiNardo251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Shoppach250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abe Alvarez22
Manny Delcarmen230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cla Meredith220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Papelbon240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Hansen210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3