TBR⇄CHC

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$3.2M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2020 odds 54% → 62% (+7.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pedro Martinez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$3.2M net -0.5

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2020 odds 49% → 41% (-7.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José Martínez1B/OF·31y·R/R

+$8.7M+$8.7M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.70/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.