STL⇄BOS

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$16.8M net +0.2

received −$9.6M−$27.2M ± $14M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2009 odds 47% → 49% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Julio LugoSS·33y·R/R

−$9.9M−$27.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.15/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$16.8M net -0.2

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2009 odds 56% → 55% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris DuncanOF·28y·L/R

+$11.4M+$11.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.78/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.