ATL⇄BOS

ATLATL Frank Wren net +$4.8M net +1.9

received +$4.0M−$4.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2009 odds 40% → 51% (+10.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam LaRoche1B·29y·L/L

+$4.0M−$4.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.94/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$4.8M net -1.9

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $34M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 3.7 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2009 odds 66% → 55% (-10.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Casey Kotchman1B·26y·L/L

+$11.4M+$11.4M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 3.7± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.91/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.