CHC⇄OAK

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$8.0M net +1.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $29M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2016 odds 93% → 95% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aaron BrooksP·26y·R/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#276 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$8.0M net -1.1

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $11M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.5 ± 1 expected · -1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2016 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris CoghlanOF·31y·L/R

+$6.4M+$6.4M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.5± 1 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.49/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.