RRosternomics
Carter Hawkins

Carter Hawkins

★ active

General manager for the Cubs (2021–present).

6 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record457–450
Win %0.504
-0.2GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.781st/195 execs
6.8Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)68th/195 execs
-5.5Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)118th/195 execs
31%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)71st/195 execs
$28MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track55th/195 execs
$14MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)41st/195 execs
$7MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade63rd/195 execs
$1MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees89th/195 execs
-7.7TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total104th/195 execs
-14.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)127th/195 execs
2.71Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)54th/195 execs
-254Roster surplus $M167th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Cubs GM 2021–present 5 -14.3 -2.86 -7.7 -60.3 +42.6 -9.6 +4.5 +0.0 2.71 0.504 1 -254
Career total (1985+ data) 6 -14.3 -7.7 -60.3 +42.6 -9.6 +4.5 +0.0 2.71 0.504 1 -254

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+42.6
Trade-9.6
Free agency+4.5
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 47% draft · 47% FA · 6% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Carter Hawkins's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 137 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Dansby Swanson SS CHC Free agency 2022 4 +14.7 +3.7 16.0
Pete Crow-Armstrong OF CHC Draft 2023 3 +13.8 +4.6
Seiya Suzuki DH/OF CHC Draft 2022 5 +13.1 +2.6
Michael Busch 1B CHC Trade 2024 3 +7.4 +2.5 8.1
Cody Bellinger 1B/OF CHC Free agency 2022 2 +6.4 +3.2 14.7
Shota Imanaga P CHC Draft 2024 3 +5.0 +1.7
Marcus Stroman P CHC Free agency 2021 2 +4.7 +2.3 0.6
Kyle Tucker OF CHC Trade 2025 1 +4.5 +4.5 19.7
Matt Boyd P CHC Free agency 2024 2 +4.4 +2.2 15.0
Ben Brown P CHC Trade 2022 3 +4.4 +1.5
Jameson Taillon P CHC Free agency 2022 3 +4.3 +1.4 5.5
Patrick Wisdom 3B CHC Trade 2021 3 +3.9 +1.3 0.3
Carson Kelly C CHC Free agency 2024 2 +3.7 +1.8 11.2
Christopher Morel DH/OF CHC Draft 2022 2 +3.3 +1.6
Miguel Amaya C CHC Draft 2023 4 +3.0 +0.8
Mike Tauchman OF CHC Free agency 2023 2 +2.7 +1.4 5.7
Javier Assad P CHC Draft 2022 4 +2.4 +0.6
Rafael Ortega OF CHC Trade 2021 2 +2.3 +1.1 0.2
Cade Horton P CHC Draft 2025 2 +2.2 +1.1
Colin Rea P CHC Trade 2025 2 +2.2 +1.1 7.8
Matt Shaw 3B CHC Draft 2025 2 +2.0 +1.0
Drew Smyly P CHC Trade 2022 2 +1.9 +0.9 0.4
Alex Bregman 3B CHC Free agency 2026 1 +1.7 +1.7 12.3
Daniel Palencia P CHC Draft 2023 4 +1.5 +0.4
Frank Schwindel 1B CHC Trade 2021 1 +1.5 +1.5 0.3
Brad Keller P CHC Trade 2025 1 +1.3 +1.3 5.3
Matt Duffy 3B CHC Trade 2021 1 +1.2 +1.2 0.2
Adrian Sampson P CHC Free agency 2021 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.5
Sergio Alcántara 2B/3B/SS CHC Trade 2021 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.1
Andrew Chafin P CHC Trade 2021 1 +0.9 +0.9 0.1
Julian Merryweather P CHC Trade 2023 2 +0.9 +0.4 3.0
Mark Leiter P CHC Free agency 2021 3 +0.8 +0.3 0.1
Nick Madrigal 2B/3B CHC Trade 2021 2 +0.8 +0.4 0.1
Caleb Thielbar P CHC Free agency 2024 1 +0.8 +0.8 4.6
Zach McKinstry 3B/OF CHC Trade 2022 1 +0.8 +0.8 0.3
Yan Gomes C CHC Free agency 2021 2 +0.7 +0.3 0.3
Reese McGuire C CHC Free agency 2025 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.8
Drew Pomeranz P CHC Trade 2025 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.8
Christian Bethancourt C CHC Trade 2024 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.3
Andrew Kittredge P CHC Trade 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.3
Trevor Williams P CHC Trade 2021 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.1
Michael Conforto OF CHC Free agency 2026 1 +0.5 +0.5 3.9
Hayden Wesneski P CHC Trade 2022 2 +0.5 +0.3
Jordan Wicks P CHC Draft 2023 3 +0.5 +0.2
Wade Miley P CHC Trade 2022 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.2
Jake Marisnick OF CHC Trade 2021 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.1
Trayce Thompson OF CHC Trade 2021 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.1
Michael Fulmer P CHC Free agency 2023 2 +0.4 +0.2 1.4
Chris Martin P CHC Trade 2022 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1
David Robertson P CHC Trade 2022 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.2
Colten Brewer P CHC Free agency 2023 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.1
Alexander Canario OF CHC Draft 2023 2 +0.3 +0.1
Porter Hodge P CHC Draft 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3
Jacob Webb P CHC Free agency 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 2.2
Ryan Brasier P CHC Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.2
Jorge López P CHC Trade 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.0
Yency Almonte P CHC Trade 2024 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
Moisés Ballesteros DH CHC Draft 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2
Tucker Barnhart C CHC Free agency 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
Edward Cabrera P CHC Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.5
Riley Martin P CHC Draft 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2
Esteban Quiroz 2B CHC Trade 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2
Nelson Velázquez DH/OF CHC Draft 2022 2 +0.2 +0.1
Mychal Givens P CHC Trade 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Garrett Cooper 1B/DH CHC Trade 2024 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.6
Ryan Rolison P CHC Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.6
Codi Heuer P CHC Trade 2021 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Steven Brault P CHC Free agency 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Tom Cosgrove P CHC Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Luke Little P CHC Draft 2023 2 +0.1 +0.1
Kohl Stewart P CHC Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Héctor Neris P CHC Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.5
Jesús Tinoco P CHC Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Justin Dean OF CHC Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.8
Ty Blach P CHC Free agency 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3
Owen Caissie OF CHC Draft 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0
Narciso Crook OF CHC Draft 2022 -0.0
Tyler Duffey P CHC Free agency 2023 -0.0
Shane Greene P CHC Free agency 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Robert Gsellman P CHC Free agency 2022 -0.0
Tyler Ladendorf 2B CHC Free agency 2021 -0.0
Hoby Milner P CHC Free agency 2025 -0.0
Nicholas Padilla P CHC Draft 2022 -0.0
Yacksel Ríos P CHC Free agency 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3
Vince Velasquez P CHC Free agency 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3
Shawn Armstrong P CHC Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Nick Burdi P CHC Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Joe Biagini P CHC Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Tyler Ferguson P CHC Trade 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3
Eric Stout P CHC Trade 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Enoli Paredes P CHC Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Clint Frazier OF CHC Free agency 2021 -0.1
Taylor Gushue C/1B CHC Trade 2021 -0.1
Caleb Kilian P CHC Draft 2022 1 -0.1 -0.1
Scott Kingery SS/OF CHC Free agency 2025 -0.1
Nick Martini DH/OF CHC Free agency 2021 -0.1
Ryan Meisinger P CHC Free agency 2021 -0.1
Jack Neely P CHC Trade 2024 -0.1
Locke St. John P CHC Free agency 2021 -0.1
Luis Vázquez 3B/SS CHC Draft 2024 -0.1
Tony Wolters C CHC Free agency 2021 -0.1
Jared Young 1B/DH CHC Draft 2022 1 -0.1 -0.1
Michael Hermosillo OF CHC Trade 2021 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Brad Boxberger P CHC Free agency 2022 -0.2
Dylan Carlson OF CHC Free agency 2026 -0.2
Hunter Harvey P CHC Free agency 2025 -0.2
Brendon Little P CHC Draft 2022 -0.2
Corbin Martin P CHC Free agency 2026 -0.2
Nate Pearson P CHC Trade 2024 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.7
Austin Romine C CHC Free agency 2021 -0.2
Andrelton Simmons SS CHC Free agency 2022 -0.2
Erich Uelmen P CHC Draft 2022 -0.2
Gavin Hollowell P CHC Trade 2024 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Kevin Alcántara DH/OF CHC Draft 2024 1 -0.3 -0.3
Greg Deichmann OF CHC Trade 2021 -0.3
Chris Flexen P CHC Free agency 2025 -0.3
Eric Hosmer 1B CHC Free agency 2023 -0.3
Adam Morgan P CHC Free agency 2021 -0.3
Eli Morgan P CHC Trade 2024 -0.3
Ryan Pressly P CHC Trade 2025 -0.3
Edwin Ríos 1B/3B/DH CHC Free agency 2023 -0.3
Andrew Romine 3B/SS CHC Free agency 2021 -0.3
Trent Thornton P CHC Free agency 2026 -0.3
Justin Turner 3B CHC Free agency 2025 -0.3
Luke Farrell P CHC Trade 2022 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Jeremiah Estrada P CHC Draft 2022 -0.4
Brandon Hughes P CHC Draft 2022 -0.4
Phil Maton P CHC Free agency 2025 -0.4
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B CHC Trade 2023 1 -0.4 -0.4 0.1
Jon Berti 3B CHC Free agency 2025 -0.5
Anderson Espinoza P CHC Draft 2022 -0.5
Manuel Rodríguez P CHC Draft 2021 -0.5
Ethan Roberts P CHC Draft 2022 1 -0.7 -0.7
Eric Sogard 2B CHC Free agency 2021 -0.7
Trey Mancini 1B/DH/OF CHC Free agency 2023 -0.8
Matt Swarmer P CHC Draft 2022 -0.8
Matt Mervis 1B/DH CHC Draft 2023 -1.1

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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