CHC⇄BOS

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$5.6M net +0.9

received +$28.0M+$28.0M ± $35M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.2 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2014 odds 21% → 21% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Félix DoubrontP·26y·L/L

+$28.4M+$28.4M± $35M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.06/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net −$5.6M net -0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2014 odds 4% → 4% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marco Hernández2B·21y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.