CHC⇄MIA

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$0.0M net +0.5

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.4 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2014 odds 19% → 21% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin RuggianoOF·32y·R/R

+$17.6M+$17.6M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.32/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$0.0M net -0.5

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2014 odds 14% → 13% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian BogusevicOF·30y·L/L

+$11.0M+$11.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.