RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.77× league · TAB -0.9
-0.9TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-0.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-6.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
26%dead money %10th/30
0.549win %10th/30
40.4roster fWAR8th/30
-60surplus $M (value vs cost)27th/30
$161Mpayroll $M2nd/30

Roster

CFDarnell McDonald 69GMike Cameron 46GRyan Kalish 38G
LFBill Hall 55GDaniel Nava 54GEric Patterson 47G
RFJ.D. Drew 133GDarnell McDonald 34GJosh Reddick 15G
SSMarco Scutaro 132GFelipe López 25GJed Lowrie 23G
2BDustin Pedroia 75GBill Hall 51GJed Lowrie 28G
3BAdrian Beltré 154GFelipe López 60GBill Hall 5G
1BKevin Youkilis 101GMike Lowell 43GLars Anderson 18G
STARTERSJon Lester 4.8WARJohn Lackey 3.4WARClay Buchholz 3.1WARDaisuke Matsuzaka 2.2WARTim Wakefield 1.2WAR
CVictor Martinez 110GKevin Cash 48GJason Varitek 39G
DHDavid Ortiz 135GMike Lowell 16GVictor Martinez 4G
BULLPEN★ Jonathan Papelbon 37svDaniel Bard 32hHideki Okajima 11hScott Atchison 8hDustin Richardson 2hScott Schoeneweis 1hFélix Doubront 1hMichael Bowden 0h
CVictor Martinez 110 · Kevin Cash 48 · Jason Varitek 39
1BKevin Youkilis 101 · Mike Lowell 43 · Lars Anderson 18
2BDustin Pedroia 75 · Bill Hall 51 · Jed Lowrie 28
3BAdrian Beltré 154 · Felipe López 60 · Bill Hall 5
SSMarco Scutaro 132 · Felipe López 25 · Jed Lowrie 23
LFBill Hall 55 · Daniel Nava 54 · Eric Patterson 47
CFDarnell McDonald 69 · Mike Cameron 46 · Ryan Kalish 38
RFJ.D. Drew 133 · Darnell McDonald 34 · Josh Reddick 15
DHDavid Ortiz 135 · Mike Lowell 16 · Victor Martinez 4
SPJon Lester 4.8 · John Lackey 3.4 · Clay Buchholz 3.1 · Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.2 · Tim Wakefield 1.2
BP★ Jonathan Papelbon 37 · Daniel Bard 32 · Hideki Okajima 11 · Scott Atchison 8 · Dustin Richardson 2 · Scott Schoeneweis 1 · Félix Doubront 1 · Michael Bowden 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Adrian Beltré 31 FA-elig 1546.4 9.0 +6.1
Jon Lester 26 arb 324.8 3.8 +7.6
Kevin Youkilis 31 FA-elig 1024.2 9.4 +0.6
Victor Martinez 31 FA-elig 1273.7 7.7 +0.9
John Lackey 31 FA-elig 343.4 18.7 -10.6
Dustin Pedroia 26 arb 753.2 3.8 +3.8
Clay Buchholz 25 arb 283.1 0.4 +6.8
David Ortiz 34 FA-elig 1452.5 13.0 -7.0
J.D. Drew 34 FA-elig 1392.3 14.0 -8.6
Daisuke Matsuzaka 29 arb 252.2 8.3 -3.2
Jed Lowrie 26 pre-arb 552.0 0.4 +4.2
Marco Scutaro 34 FA-elig 1502.0 5.5 -0.9
Daniel Bard 25 pre-arb 731.3 0.4 +2.7
Tim Wakefield 43 FA-elig 321.2 3.5 -0.8
Josh Beckett 30 FA-elig 211.0 12.1 -9.8
Jonathan Papelbon 29 arb 650.9 9.3 -7.2
Darnell McDonald 31 – 1170.8 – –
Ryan Kalish 22 – 530.5 0.4 +0.7
Bill Hall 30 FA-elig 1200.4 8.5 -7.5
Jason Varitek 38 FA-elig 390.4 3.0 -2.1
Félix Doubront 22 – 120.2 – –
Jarrod Saltalamacchia↔ TEX 25 arb 100.1 0.3 -0.0
Josh Reddick 23 – 290.1 0.4 -0.1
Rich Hill 30 – 60.1 – –
Hideki Okajima 34 arb 560.1 2.8 -2.5
Robert Coello 25 – 60.1 – –
Felipe Lopez↔ STL 30 FA-elig 40.1 0.0 +0.1
Michael Bowden 23 – 140.0 0.4 -0.3
Jonathan Van Every 30 – 220.0 – –
Lars Anderson 22 – 18-0.0 – –
Matt Fox↔ MIN 27 – 3-0.0 – –
Boof Bonser↔ OAK 28 arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Niuman Romero 25 – 2-0.1 – –
Ramon E Ramirez↔ SFG 28 arb 44-0.1 0.7 -0.9
Dusty Brown 28 – 7-0.1 – –
Joe Nelson 35 – 8-0.1 – –
Angel Sanchez↔ HOU 26 – 1-0.1 – –
Scott Schoeneweis 36 FA-elig 15-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Scott Atchison 34 FA-elig 43-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Daniel Nava 27 – 60-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Jacoby Ellsbury 26 arb 18-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Ryan Shealy 30 – 5-0.2 – –
Eric Patterson↔ OAK 27 arb 45-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Gustavo Molina 28 – 4-0.2 – –
Mike Cameron 37 FA-elig 48-0.2 7.8 -8.3
Dustin Richardson 26 – 26-0.3 – –
Fernando Cabrera 28 – 1-0.3 – –
Mike Lowell 36 FA-elig 73-0.5 12.5 -13.6
Robert Manuel 26 – 10-0.6 – –
Manny Delcarmen↔ COL 28 arb 48-0.6 0.8 -2.3
Yamaico Navarro 22 – 20-0.8 – –
Jeremy Hermida↔ OAK 26 arb 52-0.8 2.4 -4.4
Kevin Cash↔ HOU 32 – 29-1.0 – –

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Adrian Beltré6.4
John Lackey3.4
Marco Scutaro2.0
Darnell McDonald0.8
Ryan Kalish0.5
Bill Hall0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Jason Bay4.6
Brad Penny1.3
Álex González0.9
Justin Masterson0.8
Rocco Baldelli0.5
Takashi Saito0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$161.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
John Lackey318.000$18.7M$15.9MFREE AGENT$15.2M$10.3M
J.D. Drew3412.000$14.0M$14.0MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3413.000$13.0M$12.5M$14.6M$14.0M$15.0M$16.0M$16.0M
Mike Lowell3612.000$12.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Beckett309.000$12.1M$17.0M$12.8MFREE AGENT
Kevin Youkilis316.000$9.4M$12.2M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Adrian Beltré3112.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Bill Hall308.000$8.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Cameron3715.000$7.8M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Victor Martinez318.000$7.7MFREE AGENT
Marco Scutaro348.000$5.5M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Tim Wakefield4318.000$3.5M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek3813.000$3.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Schoeneweis3611.000$500kFREE AGENT
Scott Atchison346.000$420k$440k$510kFREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez309.000$35kFREE AGENT
Joe Nelson359.000—FREE AGENT
Kevin Cash328.000—FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera286.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Jonathan Papelbon295.000$9.3MFREE AGENT
Daisuke Matsuzaka293.000$8.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Lester264.000$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia264.000$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Hideki Okajima343.000$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida265.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Manny Delcarmen285.000$762kFREE AGENT
Ramon E Ramirez284.000$737kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury263.000$496kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz253.000$443kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia253.000$349kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Patterson273.000$202kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Boof Bonser284.000$87kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Shealy305.000—FREE AGENT
Angel Sanchez264.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Hill305.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Jed Lowrie262.000$434kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Bard251.000$416kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Kalish221.117$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden232.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Reddick231.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Nava270.000$248kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darnell McDonald311.143—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gustavo Molina280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Coello25–—
Dustin Richardson261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dusty Brown281.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Van Every302.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Fox27–—
Niuman Romero25–—
Félix Doubront220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Manuel261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yamaico Navarro220.001—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lars Anderson220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.