ATL⇄CHC

ATLATL John Hart net +$0.0M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 1.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2015 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Arodys VizcaínoP·24y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

Composite #83.0 pedigree (Baseball America #83 (2013)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$0.0M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2015 odds 85% → 83% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy La Stella2B/3B·26y·L/R

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

#266 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.