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July 31, 2015

CHC⇄MIA

MIA won this trade +$13.6M surplus CHC won this trade +0.2 WAR
CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$13.6M net +0.2
received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $11M expected surplus · −$13.6M realized received 2.0 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2015 odds 83% → 83% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Dan HarenP·34y·R/R
+$9.5M+$9.5M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 2.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 2.8/yr over 2.8 seasons
Talent
2.04/yr blended
Horizon
1.0 control yr
MIAMIA Mike Berger net +$13.6M net -0.2
received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2015 odds 4% → 4% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Elliot Soto2B/SS·25y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#422 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Ivan Pineyro
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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