COL⇄BOS

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$2.4M net +0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2003 odds 2% → 2% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Javier LópezP·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

#133 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$2.4M net -0.9

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2003 odds 96% → 95% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan CameronP·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#330 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.