RRosternomics
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Royals KCR

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GM: J.J. Picollo

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.9× league · TAB -9.8
-9.8TAB — talent above budget
-16.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-6.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
48%dead money %22nd/30
0.398win %28th/30
23.1roster fWAR27th/30
+0surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$142Mpayroll $M17th/30luxury tax $138M

Roster

CFKyle Isbel 56GLane Thomas 25GTyler Tolbert 2G
LFIsaac Collins 57GLane Thomas 13GStarling Marte 4G
RFJac Caglianone 54GLane Thomas 19GStarling Marte 11G
SSBobby Witt Jr. 69GTyler Tolbert 3GNick Loftin 1G
2BMichael Massey 48GNick Loftin 21GJonathan India 17G
3BMaikel Garcia 59GNick Loftin 15GJosh Rojas 2G
1BVinnie Pasquantino 65GSalvador Perez 5GJac Caglianone 3G
STARTERSMichael Wacha 1.8WARNoah Cameron 1.4WARSeth Lugo 1.1WARKris Bubic 0.8WARStephen Kolek 0.5WAR
CCarter Jensen 36GSalvador Perez 30G
DHSalvador Perez 29GCarter Jensen 26GStarling Marte 9G
BULLPEN★ Lucas Erceg 12svMatt Strahm 9hDaniel Lynch IV 8hNick Mears 5hJohn Schreiber 4hAlex Lange 1hSteven Cruz 0hEli Morgan 0h
CCarter Jensen 36 · Salvador Perez 30
1BVinnie Pasquantino 65 · Salvador Perez 5 · Jac Caglianone 3
2BMichael Massey 48 · Nick Loftin 21 · Jonathan India 17
3BMaikel Garcia 59 · Nick Loftin 15 · Josh Rojas 2
SSBobby Witt Jr. 69 · Tyler Tolbert 3 · Nick Loftin 1
LFIsaac Collins 57 · Lane Thomas 13 · Starling Marte 4
CFKyle Isbel 56 · Lane Thomas 25 · Tyler Tolbert 2
RFJac Caglianone 54 · Lane Thomas 19 · Starling Marte 11
DHSalvador Perez 29 · Carter Jensen 26 · Starling Marte 9
SPMichael Wacha 1.8 · Noah Cameron 1.4 · Seth Lugo 1.1 · Kris Bubic 0.8 · Stephen Kolek 0.5
BP★ Lucas Erceg 12 · Matt Strahm 9 · Daniel Lynch IV 8 · Nick Mears 5 · John Schreiber 4 · Alex Lange 1 · Steven Cruz 0 · Eli Morgan 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2026 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Bobby Witt Jr. 26 – 927.8 14.1 +37.2
Michael Wacha 34 FA-elig 193.0 18.0 +2.1
Carter Jensen 22 pre-arb 902.7 0.8 +17.1
Maikel Garcia 26 pre-arb 692.4 4.3 +11.3
Jac Caglianone 23 pre-arb 912.3 0.8 +14.6
Noah Cameron 26 pre-arb 182.3 0.8 +14.2
Michael Massey 28 arb 782.2 1.6 +12.9
Seth Lugo 36 FA-elig 201.9 21.5 -9.0
Lane Thomas 30 FA-elig 831.6 5.2 +5.3
Kris Bubic 28 arb 91.3 6.2 +2.7
Daniel Lynch IV 29 – 391.1 – –
Tyler Tolbert 28 pre-arb 350.8 0.6 +4.9
Stephen Kolek 29 pre-arb 100.8 0.8 +4.6
Kyle Isbel 29 arb 560.7 2.7 +2.1
Nick Loftin 27 pre-arb 600.7 0.7 +3.9
Isaac Collins 28 pre-arb 870.4 0.8 +1.9
John Rave 28 – 90.4 – –
Luinder Avila 24 pre-arb 180.3 0.7 +1.5
Elias Díaz↔ TEX 35 FA-elig 100.3 0.1 +1.6
Jose Cuas 32 – 50.2 – –
Luke Maile 35 – 20.0 – –
Starling Marte 37 FA-elig 44-0.0 1.4 -1.5
Connor Seabold↔ DET 30 – 5-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Alex Lange 30 arb 38-0.0 0.9 -1.1
Nick Mears 29 arb 21-0.0 1.9 -2.2
Jonathan India 29 arb 17-0.1 8.0 -8.5
Randy Dobnak 31 – 2-0.1 – –
Vinnie Pasquantino 28 arb 71-0.2 4.2 -5.7
Beck Way 26 – 16-0.3 0.5 -2.1
Mason Black 26 pre-arb 12-0.3 0.6 -2.4
Josh Rojas 32 – 16-0.3 0.0 -2.3
John Schreiber 32 arb 41-0.4 3.7 -6.3
Mitch Spence 28 pre-arb 3-0.4 0.0 -2.7
Lucas Erceg 31 pre-arb 39-0.4 0.8 -3.5
Carlos Estévez 33 FA-elig 1-0.4 10.1 -12.9
Cole Ragans 28 arb 8-0.4 4.6 -7.5
Eric Cerantola 26 – 4-0.5 0.0 -3.0
Eli Morgan 30 arb 15-0.5 0.8 -3.9
Bailey Falter 29 arb 5-0.6 3.6 -7.3
Steven Cruz 27 pre-arb 30-0.6 0.6 -4.5
Kameron Misner 28 – 18-0.7 0.5 -4.8
Matt Strahm 34 FA-elig 35-1.6 7.5 -18.0
Salvador Perez 36 FA-elig 90-2.4 12.5 -28.1

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
Lane Thomas1.0
Isaac Collins0.2
Elias Díaz0.2
Jose Cuas0.1
Starling Marte-0.0
Connor Seabold-0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Mike Yastrzemski1.3
Michael Lorenzen1.2
Ryan Bergert0.7
Adam Frazier0.6
Hunter Harvey0.5
Freddy Fermin0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$142.0M
luxury tax $138M
2027 guaranteed
$82.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$101M$85M$48M$12M$12M$12M
Proj. arbitration$28M
Proj. pre-arbitration$10M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$156M$103M$66M$30M$30M$30M
Tax space+$88M+$144M+$184M+$224M+$226M+$230M
Est. tax bill——————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-1 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Seth Lugo369.082$21.5M$21.5M$17.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Michael Wacha3412.062$18.0M$14.0M$14.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Salvador Perez3614.050$12.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Carlos Estévez339.022$10.1M$13.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Matt Strahm349.064$7.5MVESTFREE AGENT
Lane Thomas306.014$5.2MFREE AGENT
Cole Ragans283.029$4.6M$7.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Maikel Garcia262.168$4.3M$7.3M$10.3M$13.3M$19.3M$21.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Vinnie Pasquantino283.101$4.2M$6.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Starling Marte3712.162$1.4MFREE AGENT
Elias Díaz359.087$121kFREE AGENT
Luke Maile358.148—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Bobby Witt Jr.264.000$14.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan India295.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Kris Bubic285.135$6.2MFREE AGENT
John Schreiber325.027$3.7MFREE AGENT
Bailey Falter293.138$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Isbel294.043$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Mears294.022$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Massey283.068$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Lange303.145$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eli Morgan304.091$821kARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Rojas325.126$23kFREE AGENT
Jose Cuas323.129—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Lynch IV295.000—FREE AGENT
Randy Dobnak315.038—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Lucas Erceg312.136$804kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noah Cameron260.137$802kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaac Collins281.022$800kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Kolek291.099$785kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jac Caglianone230.118$784kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carter Jensen220.028$781kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Loftin271.081$728kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luinder Avila240.033$659kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Tolbert280.144$645kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Cruz271.057$626kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Black260.051$580kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kameron Misner281.029$455kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Seabold301.054$190kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Spence281.124$42kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Rave28–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Royals 2026; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.