BOS⇄ANA

BOSBOS Jed Hoyer net +$0.0M net +0.5

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2007 odds 81% → 83% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brendan DonnellyP·35y·R/R

+$2.5M+$1.7M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net +$0.0M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2007 odds 54% → 51% (-3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil SeibelP·28y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#225 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.