RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.83× league · TAB -6.5
-6.5TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-13.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars23rd/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
41%dead money %22nd/30
0.407win %26th/30
25.4roster fWAR25th/30
-17surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$86Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFRyan Sweeney 45GJunior Lake 27GDave Sappelt 13G
LFJunior Lake 32GBrian Bogusevic 29GRyan Sweeney 10G
RFNate Schierholtz 126GCole Gillespie 13GDarnell McDonald 8G
SSStarlin Castro 159GDonnie Murphy 3GCody Ransom 1G
2BDarwin Barney 141GAlberto Gonzalez 10GLogan Watkins 9G
3BLuis Valbuena 94GCody Ransom 46GDonnie Murphy 40G
1BAnthony Rizzo 159GCody Ransom 4G
STARTERSTravis Wood 3.7WARJeff Samardzija 2.9WAREdwin Jackson 2.1WARCarlos Villanueva 1.2WARJustin Grimm 0.2WAR
CWelington Castillo 111GDioner Navarro 55GJ.C. Boscan 4G
DHDioner Navarro 4GJulio Borbon 2GScott Hairston 1G
BULLPEN★ Kevin Gregg 33svJames Russell 19hPedro Strop 17hMatt Guerrier 8hBlake Parker 7hShawn Camp 4hHéctor Rondón 2hMichael Bowden 0h
CWelington Castillo 111 · Dioner Navarro 55 · J.C. Boscan 4
1BAnthony Rizzo 159 · Cody Ransom 4
2BDarwin Barney 141 · Alberto Gonzalez 10 · Logan Watkins 9
3BLuis Valbuena 94 · Cody Ransom 46 · Donnie Murphy 40
SSStarlin Castro 159 · Donnie Murphy 3 · Cody Ransom 1
LFJunior Lake 32 · Brian Bogusevic 29 · Ryan Sweeney 10
CFRyan Sweeney 45 · Junior Lake 27 · Dave Sappelt 13
RFNate Schierholtz 126 · Cole Gillespie 13 · Darnell McDonald 8
DHDioner Navarro 4 · Julio Borbon 2 · Scott Hairston 1
SPTravis Wood 3.7 · Jeff Samardzija 2.9 · Edwin Jackson 2.1 · Carlos Villanueva 1.2 · Justin Grimm 0.2
BP★ Kevin Gregg 33 · James Russell 19 · Pedro Strop 17 · Matt Guerrier 8 · Blake Parker 7 · Shawn Camp 4 · Héctor Rondón 2 · Michael Bowden 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Travis Wood 26 arb 373.7 0.5 +9.5
Jeff Samardzija 28 arb 332.9 2.6 +5.2
Dioner Navarro 29 FA-elig 892.2 1.8 +4.1
Edwin Jackson 29 FA-elig 312.1 13.0 -7.5
David DeJesus↔ TBR 33 FA-elig 841.8 2.9 +2.0
Anthony Rizzo 23 pre-arb 1601.8 0.8 +4.1
Luis Valbuena 27 arb 1081.7 0.9 +3.7
Nate Schierholtz 29 FA-elig 1371.5 2.2 +1.9
Scott Feldman↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 151.3 2.9 +0.7
Carlos Villanueva 29 FA-elig 471.2 5.0 -1.9
Donnie Murphy 30 arb 461.1 0.2 +2.9
Junior Lake 23 – 641.1 0.2 +2.8
Matt Garza↔ TEX 29 FA-elig 111.1 4.7 -1.7
Ryan Sweeney 28 arb 700.9 0.4 +2.1
Pedro Strop↔ BAL 28 arb 370.9 0.3 +2.1
Brian Bogusevic 29 pre-arb 470.9 0.3 +2.1
Alfonso Soriano↔ NYY 37 FA-elig 930.8 11.1 -8.8
Welington Castillo 26 arb 1130.7 0.5 +1.4
Blake Parker 28 pre-arb 490.6 0.3 +1.4
Cody Ransom↔ SDP 37 FA-elig 570.5 0.5 +0.8
Matt Guerrier↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 150.3 1.5 -0.7
Justin Grimm↔ TEX 24 pre-arb 100.2 0.1 +0.5
Kyuji Fujikawa 32 pre-arb 120.2 4.5 -3.9
Cole Gillespie↔ SFG 29 pre-arb 250.1 0.1 +0.3
Darnell McDonald 34 pre-arb 250.1 0.1 +0.2
James Russell 27 arb 740.1 1.1 -0.9
Chris Rusin 26 pre-arb 130.0 0.5 -0.4
J.C. Boscan 33 pre-arb 60.0 0.1 +0.0
Kevin Gregg 35 FA-elig 620.0 0.4 -0.4
Alex Burnett↔ BAL 25 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Starlin Castro 23 arb 1610.0 5.0 -5.0
Jake Arrieta↔ BAL 27 arb 9-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Zach Putnam 25 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Rafael Dolis 25 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Alberto Cabrera 24 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Alberto Gonzalez↔ NYY 30 – 11-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Michael Bowden 26 arb 34-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Steve Clevenger↔ BAL 27 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Zac Rosscup 25 – 10-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Thomas Neal↔ NYY 25 – 2-0.1 – –
Chang-Yong Lim 37 – 6-0.1 – –
Logan Watkins 23 – 27-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Eduardo Sanchez 24 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Julio Borbon↔ TEX 27 arb 72-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Hisanori Takahashi 38 arb 3-0.1 1.0 -1.3
Henry Alberto Rodriguez↔ WSN 26 arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Scott Baker 31 FA-elig 3-0.2 5.5 -5.9
Héctor Rondón 25 pre-arb 45-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Brooks Raley 25 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Scott Hairston↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 52-0.2 1.5 -2.1
Kameron Loe↔ ATL 31 FA-elig 7-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Darwin Barney 27 arb 141-0.3 0.6 -1.4
Dave Sappelt 26 pre-arb 31-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Brent Lillibridge↔ NYY 29 arb 9-0.6 0.3 -1.9
Carlos Marmol↔ LAD 30 FA-elig 31-0.6 5.8 -7.6
Shawn Camp 37 FA-elig 26-0.8 1.4 -3.6

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Dioner Navarro2.2
Edwin Jackson2.1
Nate Schierholtz1.5
Scott Feldman1.3
Carlos Villanueva1.2
Donnie Murphy1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Ryan Dempster1.7
Geovany Soto1.1
Paul Maholm1.0
Reed Johnson0.8
Tony Campana0.7
Bryan LaHair0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$85.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Edwin Jackson297.070$13.0M$11.0M$7.1MFREE AGENT
Alfonso Soriano3712.079$11.1MFREE AGENT
Carlos Marmol306.084$5.8MFREE AGENT
Scott Baker316.128$5.5MFREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva296.030$5.0M$5.0MFREE AGENT
David DeJesus338.146$2.9MFREE AGENT
Scott Feldman306.091$2.9MFREE AGENT
Dioner Navarro296.091$1.8MFREE AGENT
Scott Hairston337.102$1.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Guerrier348.056$1.5MFREE AGENT
Shawn Camp379.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gregg358.166$450kFREE AGENT
Kameron Loe319.000$368kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Matt Garza295.149$4.7MFREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija283.028$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Schierholtz294.078$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
James Russell273.000$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hisanori Takahashi383.000$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ransom374.008$506kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sweeney285.053$399kFREE AGENT
Brent Lillibridge293.115$338kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Murphy304.043$158kARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Lake233.018$153kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Alberto Rodriguez264.000$114kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Gonzalez303.135$45kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Starlin Castro232.150$5.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyuji Fujikawa320.000$4.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Valbuena272.148$930kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo230.168$750kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darwin Barney272.053$562kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Wood262.004$528kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden262.030$509kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Welington Castillo261.009$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Sappelt260.086$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Raley250.013$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Cabrera240.093$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Rusin260.044$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Dolis250.121$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Rondón250.000$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Borbon272.105$489kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta272.066$332kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Clevenger272.123$331kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Parker280.140$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop281.156$282kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bogusevic291.146$265kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Putnam250.019$241kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Watkins230.000$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darnell McDonald342.143$139kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Grimm240.040$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.C. Boscan331.000$80kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup250.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Sanchez241.047$51kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Gillespie290.111$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Burnett252.135$7kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Neal25–—
Chang-Yong Lim37–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.