BAL⇄BOS

BALBAL Andy MacPhail net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

David PauleyP·26y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#240 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Randor BierdP·25y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.