SFG⇄CHC

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net +$6.4M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$6.4M net -0.2

received +$5.6M+$4.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2019 odds 52% → 51% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Derek HollandP·32y·B/L

+$5.3M+$5.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.92/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.