CHC⇄TEX

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net +$20.8M net +5.1

received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $11M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 2.5 ± 1 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2018 odds 26% → 39% (+12.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cole HamelsP·34y·L/L

+$22.6M+$22.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 2.5± 1 exp WARrealized 4.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.53/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$20.8M net -5.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2018 odds 1% → 1% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rollie LacyP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#345 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Alexander Ovalles

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Eddie ButlerP·27y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

#46 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.