MIN⇄CHC

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2018 odds 4% → 4% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris GimenezC·35y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Theo Epstein net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2018 odds 40% → 39% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bobby WilsonC·35y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.