BAL⇄BOS

BALBAL Mike Flanagan net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Alberto CastilloC·37y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $31M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Cory KeylorRF·27y·L/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#413 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.