RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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President of baseball ops: Nick Krall

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.71× league · TAB -11.5
-11.5TAB — talent above budget
-3.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-6.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
91%dead money %30th/30
0.458win %24th/30
18.4roster fWAR30th/30
+12surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$112Mpayroll $M19th/30luxury tax $124M

Roster

CFDane Myers 48GTJ Friedl 40GBlake Dunn 13G
LFJJ Bleday 34GSpencer Steer 27GTJ Friedl 26G
RFWill Benson 31GSpencer Steer 17GBlake Dunn 16G
SSElly De La Cruz 56GMatt McLain 14GEdwin Arroyo 2G
2BMatt McLain 51GSpencer Steer 11GEdwin Arroyo 7G
3BKe'Bryan Hayes 44GSal Stewart 23GEugenio Suárez 16G
1BSal Stewart 46GSpencer Steer 28GNathaniel Lowe 17G
STARTERSChase Burns 2.8WARAndrew Abbott 1.1WARRhett Lowder 0.7WARNick Lodolo 0.4WARBrady Singer 0.3WAR
CTyler Stephenson 55GP.J. Higgins 12GJose Trevino 11G
DHNathaniel Lowe 28GEugenio Suárez 26GSal Stewart 7G
BULLPEN★ Emilio Pagán 6svTony Santillan 11hGraham Ashcraft 10hBrock Burke 7hConnor Phillips 5hPierce Johnson 4hSam Moll 2hTejay Antone 1h
CTyler Stephenson 55 · P.J. Higgins 12 · Jose Trevino 11
1BSal Stewart 46 · Spencer Steer 28 · Nathaniel Lowe 17
2BMatt McLain 51 · Spencer Steer 11 · Edwin Arroyo 7
3BKe'Bryan Hayes 44 · Sal Stewart 23 · Eugenio Suárez 16
SSElly De La Cruz 56 · Matt McLain 14 · Edwin Arroyo 2
LFJJ Bleday 34 · Spencer Steer 27 · TJ Friedl 26
CFDane Myers 48 · TJ Friedl 40 · Blake Dunn 13
RFWill Benson 31 · Spencer Steer 17 · Blake Dunn 16
DHNathaniel Lowe 28 · Eugenio Suárez 26 · Sal Stewart 7
SPChase Burns 2.8 · Andrew Abbott 1.1 · Rhett Lowder 0.7 · Nick Lodolo 0.4 · Brady Singer 0.3
BP★ Emilio Pagán 6 · Tony Santillan 11 · Graham Ashcraft 10 · Brock Burke 7 · Connor Phillips 5 · Pierce Johnson 4 · Sam Moll 2 · Tejay Antone 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2026 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Elly De La Cruz 24 – 775.8 0.8 +37.5
Chase Burns 23 pre-arb 184.8 0.8 +31.0
Sal Stewart 22 pre-arb 962.9 0.8 +18.2
JJ Bleday 28 arb 682.5 1.4 +15.1
Spencer Steer 28 arb 921.9 4.0 +8.5
Andrew Abbott 27 pre-arb 201.8 0.8 +11.4
Rhett Lowder 24 pre-arb 161.2 0.8 +7.2
Blake Dunn 27 pre-arb 381.0 0.6 +5.9
Tejay Antone 32 arb 290.8 0.7 +4.6
Hunter Greene 26 arb 20.7 8.3 -3.6
Dane Myers 30 pre-arb 640.7 0.8 +3.7
Graham Ashcraft 28 arb 260.7 1.8 +2.6
Nick Lodolo 28 arb 120.7 4.7 -0.4
Caleb Ferguson 29 FA-elig 190.6 4.5 -0.8
Brady Singer 29 arb 190.5 12.8 -9.1
Sam Moll 34 arb 440.5 0.9 +2.2
Brock Burke 29 arb 480.4 2.3 +0.3
Nathaniel Lowe 30 arb 700.4 1.8 +0.8
Jose Trevino 33 FA-elig 250.3 5.2 -3.0
Chris Paddack↔ MIA 30 FA-elig 60.3 0.2 +1.8
Matt McLain 26 pre-arb 830.2 2.3 -1.3
Tyler Stephenson 29 arb 740.1 6.8 -6.0
Edwin Arroyo 22 – 340.0 0.8 -0.7
P.J. Higgins 33 pre-arb 14-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Zach McCambley 27 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.3
Brandon Williamson 28 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.8 -1.1
Chase Petty 23 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Yunior Marte 31 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Emilio Pagán 35 FA-elig 18-0.1 10.0 -10.7
Julian Garcia 31 – 7-0.1 – –
Ivan Johnson 27 – 4-0.1 – –
Brandon Leibrandt 33 – 1-0.2 0.0 -1.2
Kyle Nicolas 27 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.1 -1.9
Luis Mey 25 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.1 -2.0
Will Benson 28 arb 51-0.3 1.7 -3.7
Pierce Johnson 35 FA-elig 31-0.3 5.5 -7.6
Lyon Richardson 26 – 2-0.3 0.0 -2.1
Jose Franco 25 – 9-0.3 0.2 -2.4
Connor Phillips 25 pre-arb 25-0.5 0.3 -3.5
Rece Hinds↔ MIA 25 – 12-0.6 0.7 -4.5
Zach Maxwell 25 pre-arb 10-0.6 0.5 -4.5
Eugenio Suárez 34 FA-elig 68-0.9 15.0 -21.2
TJ Friedl 30 arb 60-1.0 3.8 -10.3
Noelvi Marte 24 pre-arb 42-1.0 0.1 -6.9
Tony Santillan 29 arb 34-1.2 1.8 -10.0
Ke'Bryan Hayes 29 arb 47-1.7 7.0 -18.4

Key additions (new vs 2025)

PlayerfWAR
JJ Bleday1.5
Rhett Lowder0.7
Tejay Antone0.5
Dane Myers0.4
Caleb Ferguson0.3
Brock Burke0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2025)

Player2025 fWAR
Nick Martinez2.1
Austin Wynns0.7
Miguel Andujar0.7
Zack Littell0.6
Jake Fraley0.3
Gavin Lux0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2026 payroll
$112.1M
luxury tax $124M
2027 guaranteed
$61.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2026, 2026–2032. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2026; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Summary — luxury-tax (CBT) basis

2026202720282029203020312032
Tax threshold$244M$247M$250M$253M$256M$259M$262M
Guaranteed contracts$74M$55M$23M$18M$9M
Proj. arbitration$41M
Proj. pre-arbitration$10M
Player benefits$18M$18M$18M$18M$18M
Total CBT payroll$142M$73M$41M$36M$27M
Tax space+$102M+$174M+$209M+$217M+$229M
Est. tax bill—————

Luxury-tax (CBT) basis: contract AAV + ~$18M benefits/bonus-pool — distinct from the base-salary payroll above. Threshold is the CBA line. Tier-1 payor rates on the overage. Forward years show only guaranteed deals (arb/pre-arb not yet set). Figures are estimates.

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Eugenio Suárez3411.061$15.0M$16.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán358.091$10.0M$10.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Hunter Greene264.000$8.3M$15.3M$16.3M$21.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Ke'Bryan Hayes295.075$7.0M$7.0M$8.0M$8.0M$12.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Pierce Johnson356.137$5.5M$8.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Jose Trevino336.063$5.2M$5.2M$6.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Caleb Ferguson297.093$4.5MFREE AGENT
Chris Paddack307.000$245kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Brady Singer295.156$12.8MFREE AGENT
Tyler Stephenson295.056$6.8MFREE AGENT
Nick Lodolo284.000$4.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Steer283.035$4.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ Friedl303.112$3.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Burke295.045$2.3MFREE AGENT
Tony Santillan293.099$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathaniel Lowe305.145$1.8MFREE AGENT
Graham Ashcraft283.130$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Benson283.003$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JJ Bleday283.029$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Moll344.023$875kARB 3FREE AGENT
Elly De La Cruz243.000$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tejay Antone325.000$654kFREE AGENT
Yunior Marte313.040$13kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2026202720282029203020312032
Matt McLain262.140$2.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Williamson282.139$800kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dane Myers302.037$800kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Abbott272.119$800kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rhett Lowder241.031$790kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Burns230.097$785kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sal Stewart220.028$782kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rece Hinds250.089$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
P.J. Higgins331.103$662kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Dunn270.089$613kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Maxwell250.038$546kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Phillips250.081$251kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Franco25–$150k
Noelvi Marte241.139$84kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Mey250.057$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Nicolas271.090$66kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lyon Richardson261.037$17kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Petty230.014$13kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Leibrandt332.111$4kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2026; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.