SDP⇄BOS

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$72.8M net +5.6

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$61.6M realized received 2.5 ± 2 expected · 5.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2005 odds 18% → 29% (+11.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave RobertsOF·33y·L/L

+$12.8M+$12.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$61.6M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized 5.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Theo Epstein net −$72.8M net -5.6

received +$20.0M+$11.2M ± $35M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 5.7 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2005 odds 65% → 50% (-15.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jay PaytonOF·32y·R/R

+$9.5M+$1.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.30/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ramón Vázquez3B/SS·28y·L/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.86/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

David PauleyP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#240 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.