RRosternomics
Craig Breslow

Craig Breslow

★ active

Born Aug 8, 1980 · New Haven, CT · age 45

A former MLB pitcher and Yale graduate turned Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer, hired to modernize the club's pitching development and analytics.

3 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record218–202
Win %0.519
+1.7GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.139th/195 execs
7.3Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)36th/195 execs
-4.4Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)48th/195 execs
39%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)130th/195 execs
$32MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track43rd/195 execs
$15MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)32nd/195 execs
$3MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade85th/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees134th/195 execs
+11.3TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total48th/195 execs
+5.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)56th/195 execs
2.82Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)47th/195 execs
-22Roster surplus $M81st/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Red Sox POBO/GM 2024–present 2 +5.4 +2.72 +11.3 -3.3 +8.4 +2.4 +2.1 -0.3 2.82 0.519 1 -22
Career total (1985+ data) 3 +5.4 +11.3 -3.3 +8.4 +2.4 +2.1 -0.3 2.82 0.519 1 -22

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+8.4
Trade+2.4
Free agency+2.1
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.3
Sourcing mix: 24% draft · 39% FA · 37% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Craig Breslow's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 59 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Garrett Crochet P BOS Trade 2024 2 +6.1 +3.1 22.4
Aroldis Chapman P BOS Free agency 2024 2 +3.6 +1.8 10.0
Alex Bregman 3B BOS Free agency 2025 1 +3.5 +3.5 13.4
Roman Anthony DH/OF BOS Draft 2025 2 +3.0 +1.5
Ranger Suarez P BOS Free agency 2026 1 +3.0 +3.0 6.6
Carlos Narváez C BOS Trade 2024 2 +2.9 +1.5 10.1
Willson Contreras C BOS Trade 2025 1 +2.8 +2.8 6.2
Tyler O'Neill OF BOS Trade 2024 1 +2.5 +2.5 11.7
Lucas Giolito P BOS Free agency 2024 1 +2.0 +2.0 7.3
Payton Tolle P BOS Draft 2025 1 +1.9 +1.9
Sonny Gray P BOS Trade 2026 1 +1.9 +1.9 4.4
Connelly Early P BOS Draft 2025 2 +1.8 +0.9
Romy Gonzalez 1B/2B BOS Trade 2024 3 +1.7 +0.6 1.1
Caleb Durbin 3B BOS Trade 2026 1 +1.5 +1.5 3.8
Greg Weissert P BOS Trade 2024 3 +1.2 +0.4 2.4
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS BOS Free agency 2026 1 +1.1 +1.1 2.9
Cooper Criswell P BOS Trade 2024 1 +1.1 +1.1 5.1
Hunter Dobbins P BOS Draft 2025 1 +1.0 +1.0
Justin Wilson P BOS Free agency 2024 1 +1.0 +1.0 3.7
Sean Newcomb P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.6
Anthony Seigler 2B/3B BOS Trade 2026 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.4
Nate Eaton OF BOS Free agency 2024 2 +0.4 +0.2 1.2
Tayron Guerrero P BOS Free agency 2026 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.1
Nick Sogard 2B/3B BOS Draft 2024 2 +0.4 +0.2
Nathaniel Lowe 1B BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.6
Kyle Harrison P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.3
Cam Booser P BOS Draft 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3
Luis Guerrero P BOS Draft 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3
Marcelo Mayer 2B/3B BOS Draft 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3
Jovani Morán P BOS Trade 2024 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.1
Patrick Sandoval P BOS Free agency 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.7
Tyler Samaniego P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2
Nick Burdi P BOS Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Eduardo Rivera P BOS Draft 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1
Chase Shugart P BOS Draft 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1
Naoyuki Uwasawa P BOS Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1
José De León P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Quinn Priester P BOS Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.5
Tsung-Che Cheng SS BOS Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Jack Anderson P BOS Draft 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0
Jhostynxon Garcia OF BOS Draft 2025 -0.0
Liam Hendriks P BOS Free agency 2024 -0.0
Zach Penrod P BOS Draft 2024 -0.0
Dominic Smith 1B/OF BOS Free agency 2024 1 -0.0 -0.0 1.5
Ryan Watson P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0
Tyler Heineman C BOS Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Danny Jansen C BOS Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Danny Coulombe P BOS Free agency 2026 -0.1
Tommy Kahnle P BOS Free agency 2026 -0.1
Johan Oviedo P BOS Trade 2025 -0.1
Robert Stock P BOS Free agency 2025 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3
Tyler Uberstine P BOS Draft 2026 -0.1
Jamie Westbrook 2B BOS Rule 5 2024 -0.1
Kristian Campbell 2B BOS Draft 2025 -0.2
Isaiah Campbell P BOS Free agency 2024 -0.4
Andruw Monasterio 2B/3B BOS Trade 2026 -0.4
Bailey Horn P BOS Trade 2024 -0.5
Mickey Gasper C/DH BOS Draft 2024 -0.6
Abraham Toro 2B/3B BOS Free agency 2025 -0.7

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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